Bye again, 600. See you soon?
The broader markets tried to rally – and AAPL outperformed for the early part of the day – peaking slightly over 604 – before it, too, couldn’t escape the selling pressure affecting most stocks comprising the S&P and NASDAQ.
With AAPL back to acting high-beta for the moment (after a huge 80-point move, which could leave it “more vulnerable” to downside momentum given the current market context, we’ll see), and the markets navigating a range in very unpredictable fashion, this could be a trickier week than usual. Well, let’s have a look at a few charts anyway.
15-min chart:
– AAPL made a higher high, then fell below the opening price in less than 15 minutes.
– AAPL never really got close the rest of the day. After 12PM Eastern, it was pretty much all downhill (on a micro-timeframe scale). The failure of the potential inverted head and shoulders is a check in the short-term bearish column.
– Of course, 604-ish is a new point of reference.
– AAPL held support around 594, though given the final minutes it seems more like it was “saved by the closing bell” then actually finding a support level. The 3-minute chart also reflects a last-minute selloff (around 80 cents in that span of time).
– Is AAPL just back to trending with the broader markets, or is there something else to pay attention to? Never hurts to check another timeframe.
Hourly chart:
– Not a bullish read, of course, but nothing super-concerning either.
– It is true that MACD-h barely spent any time in positive territory this time around – we’ll see if that was some kind of short-term “omen” over the next few days or couple weeks.
– In terms of the price “decision gate”, AAPL has yet to resolve it – it’s a “breakout failure” based on the Bollinger Bands, but AAPL is still hovering slightly below mid-channel.
– It’s really something how the recent price action, for whatever reason, keeps validating my mega-macro trendline. Pardon my ego.
– We’re back to a slightly bearish read, though with the bull flag theory still very much intact, and no “lower low” on this timeframe just yet. Ex-div day is Thursday, I believe, which might help AAPL “make up its mind” (or just cause the stock to get adjusted by $3.29 😛 ).
Daily chart:
– A red day, but it seems early to proclaim downside reversal on this one.
– EMA-8 rising at a slower pace, now at 585.74 per this non-div-adjusted chart. AAPL has floated above it for nine trading days.
– The read still looks more like consolidation than panic at this point. Just “for fun”, let’s apply an unreasonably strict Fibonacci level “test” to the upwave – measuring the micro-move from 586.36 (low on May 1) to 604.41. The general rules say AAPL should hold the 61.8% retrace level, which is around 593.25 – with the degree of difficulty increased by ex-div day, and the simple fact that human nature isn’t inclined to div-adjust AAPL if the quote/charting software at hand won’t do it on its own. (Google Finance and Yahoo! Finance don’t, by the way.) One extra reference point among any others you may have.***
Hang on to your hats. Wednesday trading could get a little crazy, no matter which direction(s) the market decides to go.
***Me personally? DYODD of course, but below 593-ish, there might be 589-591ish, 586-ish and 582-ish as additional support levels, with 590 or so being the more “established” reference level so far.
Thanks Mav, the way you dissect the charts helps me put things in perspective. I appreciate it 🙂
Just remember, not trading advice and all that. It’s almost like reporting the weather without being a meteorologist. 😉 Thanks for reading!
Of course :). Thankyou