$AAPL Chart Checkup, 5/6/14 Market Close: Rest, Retrace, Both?

Bye again, 600. See you soon?

The broader markets tried to rally – and AAPL outperformed for the early part of the day – peaking slightly over 604 – before it, too, couldn’t escape the selling pressure affecting most stocks comprising the S&P and NASDAQ.

With AAPL back to acting high-beta for the moment (after a huge 80-point move, which could leave it “more vulnerable” to downside momentum given the current market context, we’ll see), and the markets navigating a range in very unpredictable fashion, this could be a trickier week than usual. Well, let’s have a look at a few charts anyway.

15-min chart:

aapl-15min-050614close

– AAPL made a higher high, then fell below the opening price in less than 15 minutes.

– AAPL never really got close the rest of the day. After 12PM Eastern, it was pretty much all downhill (on a micro-timeframe scale). The failure of the potential inverted head and shoulders is a check in the short-term bearish column.

– Of course, 604-ish is a new point of reference.

– AAPL held support around 594, though given the final minutes it seems more like it was “saved by the closing bell” then actually finding a support level. The 3-minute chart also reflects a last-minute selloff (around 80 cents in that span of time).

– Is AAPL just back to trending with the broader markets, or is there something else to pay attention to? Never hurts to check another timeframe.

Hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-050614close

– Not a bullish read, of course, but nothing super-concerning either.

– It is true that MACD-h barely spent any time in positive territory this time around – we’ll see if that was some kind of short-term “omen” over the next few days or couple weeks.

– In terms of the price “decision gate”, AAPL has yet to resolve it – it’s a “breakout failure” based on the Bollinger Bands, but AAPL is still hovering slightly below mid-channel.

– It’s really something how the recent price action, for whatever reason, keeps validating my mega-macro trendline. Pardon my ego.

– We’re back to a slightly bearish read, though with the bull flag theory still very much intact, and no “lower low” on this timeframe just yet. Ex-div day is Thursday, I believe, which might help AAPL “make up its mind” (or just cause the stock to get adjusted by $3.29 😛 ).

Daily chart:

aapl-daily-050614close

– A red day, but it seems early to proclaim downside reversal on this one.

– EMA-8 rising at a slower pace, now at 585.74 per this non-div-adjusted chart. AAPL has floated above it for nine trading days.

– The read still looks more like consolidation than panic at this point. Just “for fun”, let’s apply an unreasonably strict Fibonacci level “test” to the upwave – measuring the micro-move from 586.36 (low on May 1) to 604.41. The general rules say AAPL should hold the 61.8% retrace level, which is around 593.25 – with the degree of difficulty increased by ex-div day, and the simple fact that human nature isn’t inclined to div-adjust AAPL if the quote/charting software at hand won’t do it on its own. (Google Finance and Yahoo! Finance don’t, by the way.) One extra reference point among any others you may have.***

Hang on to your hats. Wednesday trading could get a little crazy, no matter which direction(s) the market decides to go.

***Me personally? DYODD of course, but below 593-ish, there might be 589-591ish, 586-ish and 582-ish as additional support levels, with 590 or so being the more “established” reference level so far.

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