Warning signs are adding up this week in a pretty big way.
Could be something. Could be nothing. Could “not mean much” by late April, but to me, that’s only if AAPL finds willing buyers as a result of earnings, guidance, and/or the cash update.
Let’s see if there’s any clues in the charts.
Hourly chart:
– Looks kind of like a head and shoulders pattern. Measured move – who knows? A bearish read would be around 30 points.
– AAPL hasn’t traded well since losing the purple multi-month trendline.
– Several points below blue trendline.
– Note weakening price action, change in oscillation on the Williams indicator – note squared area.
Daily chart:
– So much for the MACD-h crossover to plus territory a couple weeks ago. For now, a failure to deliver on bullish promise.
– Silver line is just there as a reference. The RED trendline under it is much more important, in my humble opinion. (Dashed red line = SMA-200)
– Inverted head and shoulders out of play currently. To restore the breakout case AAPL will need much more than a small bounce.
– AAPL has traded in the 510s in the not-too-distant past. This week will clue us in as to whether that price range is support.
– Oscillators on this timeframe looking “oversold”, but given the way AAPL and the broader markets have been trading lately, my non-expert opinion is this is no screaming buy signal by any means. Contrarians, trade with care.
Weekly chart:
– Did that inverted hammer candle two weeks ago “mean something”?
– Another head and shoulders pattern showing up on a longer timeframe? Check out July-August to the present.
– Fibonacci levels still holding – and 61.8% retrace level of the move from 490ish (call it low 510s) has not been tested yet.
– Of course, there haven’t been higher highs in a few months. The intermediate downtrend (based on MACD-h) continues.
Buckle up if you’ll be trading on Monday. Could be very, very tricky. Good luck to all.
The AAPL Tree 