The Great 2016 iPhone Crisis (of Confidence) + $AAPL FQ1 2016 Revenue Mix “First Look”

If you prefer to only focus on iPhone, I’ve re-posted that one section here as a separate post for additional clarity and brevity.

Everyone knows that it’s out there, so I’ll spare you all the novella…on this particular sub-topic. (New Readers/New Readers from Apple News: Big-time TL;DR warning. Sorry, earnings doesn’t lend itself well to bite-sized analysis.)

All that “iPhone unease” on Wall Street (or piling on by various other journos, bloggers, etc.) that’s out there? An apparent excuse for AAPL trading at such a…appreciable discount to…a few indexes you might know? That’s why I made the (unspeakably “gorgeous”) iPhone Wall of Worry some months back. And generally speaking I think it’s still holding up quite well.

It’s probably not too far off the mark to say the “over/under” on iPhone is quite literally…whether iPhone unit sales are over or under the FY2015 total of about 231.1 million.

There are many guesses, all of them…well, no more than guesses, even the most educated ones. Whether iPhone unit sales will grow for all of fiscal year/calendar 2016 isn’t something anyone can know, and it’s hardly something Apple of all companies will ever give insight into…except, indirectly, by necessity, in the context of FQ4 2016 guidance. 😀

Base speculation on “Peak Apple” has failed, badly, since the last time Apple actually posted a true decline in YOY revenues. Which was…well…probably a few years before the iPhone Era. The point is, just arguing about it really doesn’t advance understanding. Apple looks about 90 days ahead, when Tim and Co. aren’t talking megatrends or very broad topics on conference calls, and that’s that.

So, as is the wont of your humble correspondent, let’s start with the most knowable known out there – Apple’s own revenue guidance for the biggest, iPhone-heaviest fiscal quarter it will have in FY 2016 – and see if a little home gamer guesswork, involving actual dartboard-toss “educated guesses” typed in an actual blog post, can’t compare numbers to narratives.

…I know, an actual revenue mix preview. Last seen in February 2015? Well, since I’m newly on the Apple News RSS list (please do subscribe to the channel, I promise to update…quarterly? 😉 ), and since iPhone Worry is such a hot topic, and since I haven’t updated the blog in a while, why not.

(FIRST, A REMINDER: Please refer to the About + Disclaimer section. You won’t ever find actionable investing/trading advice here, just a humble home gamer in his little corner of the Web trying to understand Apple and tech a bit better. As you know, no one has any clue what AAPL stock will do from day to day, quarter to quarter, year to year, even if earnings “seem good enough”.)

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