A pre-7-for-1-split closing price of 717.50. 14 up weeks in the past 20. Maybe some concerns as to whether AAPL is “due” for at least some kind of “rest” following this multi-month, post-April-earnings rally.
Where do we go from here?
As always, no one really knows. And with the Sep. 9 event (and iPhone 6 initial sales expectations maybe a couple weeks later) close at hand, the potential for volatility certainly seems higher than normal. But let’s see if the charts can’t at least provide a tiny sense of “place” as the newest Trials of Sentiment™ approach.
(Click for full resolution charts)
– So apparently, there might have been an ascending channel (in purple) since late May or early-ish June, depending on your measuring point. Looks parallel-ish, and as far as the the lower
trendline is concerned, it’s held after at least two tests – late June, mid-August.
– Also of interest is the last two and a half days of trading, where AAPL looks to be attempting a channel breakout, right around the same area as the upper-level mega-macro trendline.
– Also also of interest is the accelerated trendline (yellow) which broke, but to no bearish effect, just consolidation-type trading. From this distance it looks a bit like a bull flag formation (starting around Aug. 8) with a potential (“suggested”) measured move of maybe 7-8 points from wherever the breakout point would be. Will it trigger? Has it already? Maybe we’ll know more next week.
– Zooming in a bit, there might or might not be a micro-timeframe bull flag from last Wednesday, measuring up to maybe 1.8 points from the breakout point if it triggers. It also coincidences with a narrowing of the hourly Bollinger Bands, with AAPL in decent-looking position within this volatility compression phase (though with MACD-h currently in negative territory).
– Net bullish? Seems that way to my untrained eyes. Possibly overheated? Depends on how AAPL handles those upper trendlines and the bullish-seeming formations in the next several days, I guess.
Moving onto the daily chart:
– Consistent uptrend ever since April. No nearby price gaps from what I can tell on this timeframe. Not terribly far from the EMA-8 (currently 101.31 per this chart). Range expansion in progress from at least mid-August, but still within the boundaries of the Bollinger Bands. The few MACD-h/oscillator metrics I follow seem firmly bullish. Really, the only “concern” is that AAPL has had 14 up days out of the past 16. This most recent rally has gone on for a while. Yet, considering all of the daily candles (such as the hammers and dojis) along the way, it really doesn’t seem all that “out-of-control”.
– The last time AAPL broke out of the mega-macro channel was February 2012. Is AAPL “gearing up” for another attempt?
– Seems 110 is still in play as a nearby “bullish price objective”. It can all change very quickly, but it’s difficult to read too much bearishness into Friday’s filled green candle.
Wrapping up with the weekly chart:
– Still bullish. From this timeframe, it looks like AAPL had a healthy 4-5 weeks of sideways-ish trading (starting around mid-July) before gathering additional momentum. I suppose the longer-term question is now, can AAPL build on 100+ from this point forward?
– Well, AAPL took a considerable length of time resolving the downtrend, so it’s not like AAPL didn’t “earn” its way back. And AAPL, for all its progress, is still undervalued relative to the S&P 500, with a multiple of around 16.6 vs. the “market multiple” of 19.2.
– It’s too early to tell whether AAPL can escape a “double top” chart scenario, which obviously wouldn’t be ideal for bulls. So while AAPL’s cleared an old battleground price zone (rectangled area), more challenges await, just like they always do. That being said, AAPL’s chart just plain looks the best it has in years, and if the mega-macro channel is anything to go by, AAPL remains on a more “sustainable” course than in 2012.
Will iPhone 6’s announcement and initial sales assist or impede AAPL’s continuing uptrend in the short term? Will the market remain “conducive” to additional upside (whatever that means), or will AAPL be able to maintain relative strength?
Won’t be long until we get some fragments of clues, hopefully. See you on the virtual exchange floor Tuesday!