$AAPL Chart Weekend Update, 8/1/14 Market Close: Fit of Peak

Get it? Peak?

The bad puns return. Well, just the one. 😉

Was it the spurious iPhone in October rumor via MacRumors (a site with not-insignificant readership 😛 ) that caused additional selling pressure? Or the indices maybe having a major retrace/corrective-type phase for real this time? Maybe both?

Whatever the case, seems the charts are even trickier to “interpret” than usual. Well, let’s check ’em out anyway, starting with the hourly chart.

(Click for full resolution charts)

Hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-080114close

– Generally speaking, still looking good since Q2 earnings. And considering the reference line (ascending, in green), it’s actually been a pretty controlled rally overall. Zooming in a bit:

aapl-hourly-080114close-2

– In the short-term – bear flag forming from Thursday? Just a gap fill (first hour of Friday) before continuing to follow the trend? Relative strength on Friday? Just a weak bounce? Hard to say. The two oscillators I track seem a bit “noncommittal” at the moment.

– MACD-h actually put in “record lows” this past week, although the fairly large drop from Wednesday was the reason for it. It’s very slightly negative as of Friday close, looking to cross over to positive territory, although in the final two hours AAPL was unable to make additional forward progress, and was unable to reclaim mid-channel on the first try. Mixed signals, that’s for sure.

Daily chart:

aapl-daily-080114close

– AAPL continues to make higher lows, but “breaking” the reference line might (or might not) represent a change in composure.

– MACD-h crossed over to negative territory on Friday. We’ll see if that “means anything” by the end of the upcoming week.

– AAPL did reclaim the SMA-20 after closing below it on Thursday.

– Volume continues to be “low” post-split. Maybe this is the “new normal”, at least in between product launch buzz.

– As you can see by the mega-macro trendline (lowest light blue ascending line) and the Fibonacci retracement (measuring sub-move from 82.93 on May 9), there’s nothing wrong with the intermediate trend or macro trend. After hitting “Ivory Soap Resistance” (99.44, I’ll be here all week), AAPL hasn’t “even” revisited the 38.2% retrace level (around 93.2). Doesn’t mean it won’t, but so far, the intermediate trend is still firmly in bulls’ favor.

Wrapping up with the weekly chart:

aapl-weekly-080114close

Still bullish. Seriously, it just doesn’t look alarming at all from this timeframe. AAPL attempted to break through the top end of the “contested zone” I “rectangled” a month or so ago – 97.85, the former 685 – and it couldn’t on the first try. “No big deal” as yet. If anything, it seems AAPL’s looking quite comfortable resuming its multi-year uptrend.


Considering the return of volatility last week, it might be more interesting than usual this week. Best of luck, and see you on the virtual exchange floor on Monday!

 

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