AAPL continues to pass various Trials of Sentiment™ (including that whole fiscal Q3 earnings checkpoint deal) as the iPhone 6 launch approaches. And the price action really does look like it’s back to where it once belonged.
Where do we go from here? If only I had a clue.
But maybe we can get a clue – or a fraction thereof – from the charts.
(Click for full resolution charts)
– Remember that “battleground price zone” that I first mentioned in early June (daily chart)? 92.85-97.85ish? History repeats, sort of, in this case, I guess.
– The “salient” point is that after some choppy price action and a test of the low end of that zone, AAPL’s now looking to break out post-earnings. It’s been forming a fairly decent bull flag (3.5 points or so) from Wednesday. We’ll see if it triggers, but it’s tough to see anything all that bearish on this timeframe. July 23 was a good opportunity for bears to try and force a head-and-shoulders-esque formation out of AAPL – but the bulls carried the day as well as the week.
– Zooming out a bit, AAPL hasn’t looked back ever since that June 27 descending channel breakout. It’s still trading very nicely above the mega-macro trendline (lower light blue line).
– The week’s price action saw AAPL looking bullish into a price compression scenario. Sure, Bollinger Bands (which at market close were still narrowing) have been narrower than about 1.25 points, but so far it looks like there’s a “bias” to the upside – the Williams %R and RSI oscillators are heading back to bullish territory, and MACD-h is only marginally negative.
– Two points for the bulls in the event of (1) upside resolution that (2) results in some sustained trading a safe distance from 97.85-ish (formerly 685); maybe one point for the bears if 97.85-ish once again acts as resistance.
– Bullish crossover on the MACD-h – also an indication of additional upside in the short-to-intermediate term? And the oscillators are newly bullish as AAPL trades near the top of the upper Bollinger Band (bandwidth isn’t as narrow as it “could” be, but there’s no fixed rules on this – see TSLA’s daily chart in mid-February 2014, for instance). Floating, but not flying, above the EMA-8 – and really, AAPL’s “back on the upswing” following a pre-earnings test of the SMA-20.
– Call it another case of bullish promise – I think it’s quite reasonable to “expect” AAPL to deliver, and be somewhat more cautious/skeptical if it doesn’t. But that’s just me, YMMV, please refer to my many site disclaimers, and so on. 😀 And I’d like to think I’m giving an objective read on this – even if I wasn’t long AAPL (which I am), this admittedly small subset of the universe of indicators “suggests” upside within the context of a strong multi-week, multi-month uptrend. And if it doesn’t happen, then assumptions/working theories are being challenged to some degree.
– Volume is back to “below average” but days of <50M shares traded might just be the new normal with AAPL. We’ll need many more weeks of data to get a better idea.
Wrapping up with the weekly chart:
– It took some time to get here, but 100 isn’t so far away – 100.72-ish in particular being AAPL’s all-time high before, well, you know the rest.
– AAPL’s actually at all-time highs on a dividend-adjusted basis, but since “no one cares”, neither will I for purposes of these home game technicals posts.
– You guessed it – AAPL’s macro-ish chart remains all kinds of strong, and after around 3 or so weeks of consolidation, AAPL’s breaking out to new trend/closing highs. Looks like that measured move suggested target of 110 or so remains in play.
Nothing much else to say. The trend remains AAPL bulls’ friend until it isn’t. 😉 See you on the virtual exchange floor on Monday!