Yes, I know. No, the bad puns won’t go away just yet. 😉 (Though in case you’re a bit confused, “first time’s a charm” refers to AAPL’s continued bullishness following the apparent descending channel breakout from last week.)
Did AAPL…well…give proof through the week that the bull flag was still there? 😀 (I’ll be here all week, incidentally.)
Let’s see if the charts provide any fragments of clues, fully mindful that technicals/price action may be even less “instructive” the closer we get to Apple’s scheduled earnings release after market close on July 22. (As always, click charts for full resolution.)
Starting with the 15-min chart:
– Monday – Micro bull flag trigger, some fairly frenetic buying activity following very bullish mid-day consolidation, AAPL tried to push higher but lost most of the afternoon portion of its gain. Tuesday and Wednesday collectively were (in retrospect) very controlled price action days, with Tuesday being a muted peak-and-retrace up day and Wednesday closing less than a nickel down. Thursday brought a clean breakout from what looks to be a micro descending channel, and the Bollinger Bands on this timeframe do seem to be hinting at bullish range expansion as “time ran out” due to the shorteneed trading day.
– MACD-h and the two oscillators I track are certainly looking “all systems go” at this point in time. And aside from what look to be clean bullish formations and triggers to my untrained eyes, AAPL looks to be over 2.5 points above the breakout point (I measure it at around 91.3-ish) on June 27, 2014. As a bonus, making nothing but higher lows post-breakout, even on this fairly micro timeframe.
– A strong up move so far. Bollinger Bands bearish fake-out it was, apparently, at least for now. Speaking of which, AAPL’s in about the best position possible (on this timeframe) to resolve the current volatility compression phase to the upside.
– The Williams %R oscillator is freshly in bullish territory, and while MACD-h and Stochastics indicators I follow have yet to catch up, the bullish trend seems fairly clear – of course, until/unless we see otherwise (I know, technical-speak is a real riot, isn’t it?).
– From this timeframe, a bull flag measuring just under 4 points (being a bit conservative and measuring from mid-day June 26 through mid-day July 1) seems to be in play. The “suggested target” should the breakout continue looks to be from the low-to-mid 97 range based on that particular formation. 95.05 represents the highest point of resistance in this one-year uptrend. Let’s see how AAPL trades around that point of reference, as well as the 94.5-94.75-ish micro price band. If there’s sufficient momentum to back up the bullish promise we’re seeing on this timeframe, one might “expect” 95.05 to not put up all that much of a fight next week. Please refer to my frequent disclaimers and lack of market expertise, of course. 😉
– Things were looking a bit dicey around June 10, but it seems around two weeks was all AAPL needed to get back on track. AAPL’s got a nice mini-bull flag formation on this timeframe starting from June 25, and has been trading constructively even after its somewhat toppy (though still green) trading on June 30.
– AAPL looks just about as bullish into the volatility compression phase as it does on the hourly – potentially instructive bullish confluence, and possibly more important than the hourly chart’s Bollinger Bands. As with the hourly chart, AAPL “held where it had to” and has been pressuring bears ever since June 25.
– MACD-h is, as always, lagging – but it looks primed for a positive crossover very shortly just as the oscillators have just recently turned bullish. We’ll see if anything results from the bullish promise on the daily timeframe as well. In my humble opinion, it’s more than reasonable to “expect” bullish price action (whether you’re actually trading AAPL right now or just watching), and, at the same time, possibly get skeptical in the event AAPL doesn’t deliver on said bullish promise.
Wrapping up with the weekly chart:
– Still “strong, strong, all kinds of strong”. Perhaps a somewhat brief 2-3 week rest, but very welcome for bulls in any case.
– The one question mark is that very, very low volume, though the stock split last month may have much to do with it. Absolute money flow is down from recent levels – but liquidity is the best it’s been in years. That and it was a holiday-shortened week with a mere 3.5 days of trading, with many market participants heading for vacation ever since Monday. So until we see otherwise, I’m not currently inclined to be overly concerned with this “new normal” (for what little it’s worth)
It’s looking to be a very interesting Monday as AAPL bears and those otherwise uncommitted have some decisions to make. Enjoy the weekend, and I’ll see you on the virtual exchange floor soon.