This could be the start of another familiar pattern. But if so, it sure is taking its time, isn’t it?
Time for a look at the charts to see if we can find semi-clues heading into the Thursday session.
(Click for full resolution charts)
– Bearishness continues…but more at a “controlled rate” than some kind of cascade.
– Yes, more bearish-looking patterns. Such as that head and shoulders-looking formation, suggesting a move of around 1 point, give or take a dime. If it triggered right at market open tomorrow, the measured move target would be about 89 based on that formation. On the other hand, notice the price action within the “reference channel” I have. A bunch of the recent price action is more the middle of the channel than testing the lower reference line/trendline.
– Sure, it could change for the worse very quickly, but for a downtrend, it’s looking somewhat…orderly. Maybe even constructive from an intermediate, multi-week perspective. Of course, that can still happen even with…er…air pockets that are scary as heck (for bulls). Which can happen in the blink of an eye, as we’ve seen. So who knows exactly what’s ahead.
– Range expansion, but not “overly so”. Y’know? I know, I know, whatever that means.
– Still bearish? Yep. MACD-h going positive didn’t amount to much? Yep. Possible new micro bear flag formation from Tuesday, this one with a measured move of up to approx. 2 points (target low/mid 88 based on last price)? Yep.
– Again, looking relatively controlled all things considered? Also yep (though it might just be me). Make no mistake, I’m not saying AAPL hasn’t been weak, but it’s not June 11-13 weak. It’s considerably more “methodical”. Granted, “until it isn’t”. 😛
Wrapping up with the daily chart:
– Well, AAPL did avoid the “uncharted” territory of five consecutive down days. Though not by much.
– AAPL’s not looking great into the current volatility compression phase – we’ll see about the next few sessions or couple of weeks.
– Very interesting how volume’s dried up lately (were AAPL trading at these levels pre-split, they’d be quite anomalous), though I bet a lot of it is due to directional price action being readily available for traders elsewhere.
– Of course, as you know, AAPL’s currently trading in the aftermath of a massive move which I informally call the “double move” based on AAPL’s post-June-2013 trading patterns. Up about 22, down almost 5 since the April 15 low and June 10 high? In context, that’s really “nothing”. So far anyway.
– On the other hand – not a lot of candles to go on, but price action from late May or so is starting to look head-and-shoulders-ish (tricky to measure, but let’s say the measured move is in the neighborhood of 4 points). Can AAPL escape that fate up to and after July earnings? We’ll see.
Volume might be near record lows on a pre-split basis, but AAPL doldrums are nothing new, and maybe even expected considering the relentless upward pace since earnings. The intermediate read does remain bullish based on basic Fibonacci retrace levels at present, and the micro downtrend is arguably constructive longer-term. So bulls not presently trapped in positions needn’t get too skittish…yet.
See you on the virtual exchange floor soon.