Was Friday’s trading the catalyst to “finally” get AAPL moving in some direction again (whether your thinking is downside based on end-of-day selling, or contrarian based on AAPL regaining some ground in a fairly high-volume after hours session)?
Let’s have a quick, home gamer look at the week that was. (Click for full resolution charts.)
– The intermediate uptrend remains strong…subject, of course, to those two toppy-looking red weekly candles (sorta-inverted hammers, whatever).
– If the last two weeks of trading were “warning signals”, will they amount to anything? We’ll just have to wait and see. In the meantime, AAPL’s had its fifth straight weekly close above the mega-macro trendline.
– The post-earnings uptrend, based on basic Fibonnaci rules anyway, still looks fine. The 61.8% retrace (based on 82.93-95.05 sub-move) is still some distance away, at about 87.5. As of now, AAPL remains around 3 points above the EMA-8 on this timeframe (about 88).
– Another multi-week consolidation channel? Not sure yet. (No comment on Air Pocket III possibility.)
– New checks in the bearish column. A few examples include a close below the daily SMA-20; lowest close since June 2; lost support at 92 for the time being; oscillators trending towards very bearish/oversold on this timeframe.
– Also of note was the big jump in volume from the hyper-anemic 30-35M-ish range from Monday-Thursday to slightly over 100M for all of Friday. Maybe “high volume, down day” is “supposed to be” a bearish signal on an “average” day, I’m no expert. Then again, there was a combination of considerable end-of-day selling plus a sorta-bounce in after-hours plus quad-witching (not sure how those iWatch rumors played into things).
– AAPL didn’t really make a move to the downside until the last 25 minutes of trading. According to this charting platform there was about 10M in volume in the last 10 minutes of the regular session.
– On the other hand, AAPL ended the after-hours session at 91.42, regaining some of the lost ground, with the vast majority of the after-hours volume recorded by 5PM Eastern.
– Is AAPL finally “due” for the 3-point-or-so bear flag measured move, given the “L” formation from around June 10 or so?
– If so, bears seem to have the better short-term thesis right now (though I’m not sure how much the after-hours session affects their thinking). AAPL’s threatening to break below the lower Bollinger band on this timeframe – let’s see if there’s some real resolution of the volatility compression in the next few sessions.
– There’s also the bearish confluences of MACD-h negative crossover and oscillators also heading bearish, based on the few indicators I track.
– Nearby lower levels I’m keeping an eye on just because: 90.5-91 and 89 (from my June 14 post).
If there’s one thing most market participants can agree on (I think), it’s that rangebound/directionless price action isn’t any fun. Let’s see if Friday was the start of something different. See you on the virtual exchange floor tomorrow!