If you’re a somewhat regular reader (thanks!), you’d know this is exactly as nuanced (or should I say bet-hedged? :D) as it sounds. Sometimes there’s a fine line between hint and mirage, and some days, you’ll get both (the smallest of windows to close out a currently-winning trade).
AAPL had a decidedly blah, underperforming day as the SPX, fueled by apparently dovish/good news from the Fed, reached a new all-time high. Meanwhile, Amazon announced its Fire Phone and ended the day up almost 270 basis points.
And yet, despite the “relative weakness” and anemic volume, AAPL put in another basically constructive day even as the short-term bear flag theory continues to loom.
Now, constructive days (like bearish days) are only that way “until they’re not”, which is understandably irritating and unhelpful. But “conflicting” reads are ever-present, and only the next significant move will tell who was right or wrong that round. Same as it ever was.
On to the typical 5-minute/hourly/daily chart treasure hunt for hints of clues.
(Click for full resolution charts)
– Small gap up couldn’t hold, and AAPL bounced along the bottom of the trading range until the Fed came to the rescue. AAPL did end the day as it began – green – with a decently defined, if modest, inverted head and shoulders (yellow line). If it triggers, the measured move is about 60-70 basis points (close to the “top” of the 91.75ish-92.85ish action area AAPL’s currently trading in).
– While AAPL did break 91.75-ish support, it is still making higher lows for now, and it’s not giving up 92 either.
– Maybe one short-term composure test is whether AAPL retests the high 92s before making any lower low (trading below 91.35).
– As you can see, there’s a reason why I mentioned the bear flag formation right up front.
– On the other hand, AAPL’s MACD-h negative crossover didn’t last long at all. There’s been no range expansion, and AAPL once again finds itself slightly above mid-channel (and on the upswing) as the volatility compression scenario continues.
– While it looks like there’s something like a head and shoulders from June 4 or so to today, there’s yet to be a trigger (which could be for 3 points or so). By no means has AAPL gone super-bullish, but it’s also true that AAPL remains resilient – Ye Olde Resistance of 92 has become increasingly familiar support.
Wrapping up with the daily chart:
– Huh. A hammer candle, or an almost-dragonfly doji.
– Yes, volume is still utterly lousy, and as hammers go, there wasn’t much range or enthusiasm. Yes, Yellen probably helped. Still, AAPL turned a somewhat lousy day into a quiet inside day; it’s continuing to hold the EMA-13 (SMA-20 is at 91.03 and rising) as volatility compression continues; it’s attempting to reclaim the 23.6% Fibonacci retrace level I’m tracking; and it’s performing pretty respectably for having a fourth day of negative MACD-h. Oddly enough, today marks AAPL’s highest close since that lagging indicator turned “bearish”.
Just to be clear, this non-advice blogger guy isn’t issuing a “buy” recommendation of any kind. Not that I’m anywhere near qualified, and I didn’t even notice these hints of bullish promise until after the market close. 😀 But I do think they exist, even though they’re modest. Whether they ultimately materialize into something that negates the short-term bear flag theory, of course, is another matter.
See you on the virtual exchange floor Thursday.