644 92 to end the week. Seems like that could be important for AAPL bulls going forward.
Luckily I hedged my bets last week, so to speak, and did “allow” for the possibility that WWDC would surprise. And surprise it did.
Onward to uncharted territory of around 6 billion shares outstanding, and “familiar” territory of a (likely) 90-ish share price on Monday morning. A significant difference being that the last time AAPL was 90ish, its yearly revenue run-rate was somewhere around $40B, vs. the…er…$175B of today. Yep, things are different now.
Let’s check a few charts (with the instantaneous “reads”, if you can call them that, done by your humble home gamer correspondent with all that implies) before the large-scale market psychology experiment on Monday.
(Click for full resolution charts)
– Potential micro-timeframe weakness, but, er, the low 92s (644-ish) are still holding as a support zone.
– Just looking at the price action, there’s a head and shoulders theory (with a measured move of a little less than 1 point split-adjusted, measuring from around June 5 late afternoon or so); a channel “theory” (more of a “wait and see which way AAPL resolves” deal, I’m very informally using the horizontal green lines for my own reference); and the constructive trading/consolidation theory (AAPL still making higher lows on this very short timeframe, trading is choppy but still bull-flag-type).
– Which of the three looks more likely? Maybe we’ll know before next Friday.
– AAPL is also showing short-term weakness on the hourly charts, though nothing definitive yet. MACD-h was mostly negative on Friday, moreso end of day, but the net result was AAPL down 27 basis points. So maybe MACD-h “by itself” isn’t indicative of selling pressure on AAPL just yet. Of course, you may for very good reason see things differently (it’s getting tiresome to keep re-typing that, so call it “implied” in future posts), but I’m focused more on the Bollinger Bands and reference lines.
– Bollinger Bands have compressed to a degree we haven’t seen since around May 21 or so. As of now AAPL is slightly below mid-channel, but there’s no directional resolution yet. Soon, perhaps?
– AAPL has “broken” my informal orange trendline, though as you’ll sort of see on the daily chart, it’s an accelerated trendline anyway – one I wouldn’t expect AAPL to hold indefinitely. I also have the dark blue and lower light green ascending trendlines to get a very general sense of the health/”velocity” of the current uptrend – only time will tell if they’re instructive.
– Bearish engulfing candle, but in context of Thursday’s very small open-to-last-price range (and everything else), I’m just making a note of it rather than declaring the end of the rally (not like I have the necessary gravitas, anyway 😛 ).
– Chart’s looking very strong overall on this timeframe. AAPL had a nice recovery around the EMA-8 a few days ago, and is still humming along intermediate-trend-wise. High-velocity, but as far as the Bollinger Bands, still relatively controlled for now. Speaking of which, the lower BB is finally curling upwards, to around 82 split-adjusted.
– You could say the oscillators have been “net overbought” since late May, but in my opinion, the better read was “very bullish” – AAPL did hit a new intraday trend high of about
651 93 before retracing a bit.
– It’d be really something if AAPL consolidated for about four days (to about June 3) until heading still higher. I might revisit that idle observation should it prove relevant a few days or couple weeks from now.
– For now, AAPL’s been “acting” incredibly well (to borrow a phrase from another trader) above the mega-macro trendline. Almost like it’s always “belonged” above it (albeit in an apparent channel for some time before the 2011-2012 parabolic-esque rise and fall – hence the new light blue ascending trendline).
Wrapping up with the weekly chart:
– As I mentioned in a prior post, the 92.85ish-97.85ish price band will be a place to watch, should AAPL be able to get there. It certainly looks to have the necessary momentum, even if (especially if?) it stops for air.
– Interestingly, while AAPL’s rally is at the highest velocity it’s ever been since the 388-ish double bottom, it’s only just now resembling the same velocity it had to the downside. In other words, AAPL’s recovery was slow, methodical, maybe even disappointing, until what looks to be a mega-cup-and-handle trigger. Which was conveniently sparked by a solid earnings surprise, and sustained by an aggressive buyback expansion/annual dividend increase plan, a high-divisor share split, management optimism, a new wave of positive Apple sentiment, even WWDC-non-disappointment (which is kind of a new thing).
– My tinfoil theory – it’s not parabolic if it’s just getting back to where it once belonged. 😉
So, what’s on tap on Monday? I know, big surprise, but I have no idea to expect. AAPL hasn’t had a share split since 2005, and looking to other companies isn’t useful at all if you ask me.
If I had to make an utterly wild guess, I’d say “not much” will happen, but who knows. Especially with such a powerful trend in play, and all that could mean for potential upside, downside, and volatility.
Have yourselves a good weekend, and I’ll see you on the virtual exchange soon.