$AAPL Chart QuickTake, 06/04/14 Market Close: Press Your Luck

The eternal conflict – big money; no whammies.


(Now that’s an epic spin battle…game show as tennis/ping-pong match.)

Clearly, AAPL bulls are in the lead. But are they in most danger of getting wiped out for refusing to pass up their current trades/positions, or are AAPL bears and AAPL fence-sitters actually at “higher risk” in the near term?

Charts can’t predict the future – they never could in my opinion – but maybe we’ll get some clues whenever the next AAPL inflection point is.

5-min chart:


Very micro-timeframe, but chart looks weak on this timeframe aside from the price action itself, which looks decently strong (retained much of today’s gains). Or…does it?

– Bearish formation watch: 3-point measured move head and shoulders (lower green “neckline”).

– Vs. bullish formation watch: 622-ish to 638-ish bull flag trigger (starting today) is arguably still in play, with the “implied” measured move target around 654.

– Vs. another bullish formation watch? Depends on whether AAPL breaks below the micro-timeframe neckline or breaks above the top descending trendline (and what happens after that, of course).

Hourly chart:


– More “frenetic” price action lately…at the same time, compare those two marked areas. As of now, AAPL looks to be showing more resilience and impatience to the upside than in early May. The other side of that observation – more volatility and the attendant risk for traders.

– Zooming out from the 5-min chart, looks a lot more like digestion/constructive trading for bulls than it does weakness. For now.

– The few readings I track seem decent or better (net bullish). AAPL’s trading very well in the upper bound of Bollinger Bands; MACD-h still positive, if trailing off; as always, pick your interpretation of the Williams/Stochastics oscillators having the strong readings they have. My non-expert, non-actionable take? For now, the presumption is more bullish than overbought, until, you guessed it, the price action shows otherwise.

Wrapping up with the daily chart:


– Another up day. So no surprise as far as technical strength or AAPL’s utterly superior composure thus far over the multi-year mega-macro trendline so far this trend (from 388-ish double bottom).

– Not just any up day, either. For now, it seems difficult for AAPL bears or skeptics to claim victory just because AAPL closed at 644.8, since AAPL put in a good green candle overall on 11M+ volume and traded as high as 647.89, meaning that 644 is no impossible resistance as yet.

– It’s true that the sub-uptrend from 511 has been incredibly fast by AAPL standards lately. And that rest and retrace would even be welcomed by bulls at this point. And yet AAPL continues to challenge market contestants (er, participants), as the trading remains choppy, the share split looms, the ECB meets Thursday, bullish targets suddenly don’t seem so far away, Chinese state media pushes for punishment of US tech companies including Apple, and all the rest. With all that and more in mind – will you press your luck or pass?

See you on the virtual exchange on Thursday.

(Oh, and here’s how that episode ended, apparently.)

2 thoughts on “$AAPL Chart QuickTake, 06/04/14 Market Close: Press Your Luck

  1. Thanks for another great writeup. I think what’s happening is that people have been underweight AAPL for so long, we’re now seeing some panic buying as people begin to feel that they’ll miss their chance to be in the stock.

    • Thanks, always appreciate kind words, retweets etc. 😉

      Institutions might be underweight if Huberty’s report is correct. Retail buyers and technical traders and hedge funds and who knows who else certainly seem to be worried that they’re missing out, considering how frenetic and kinetic the price action has been since April earnings.

      Who knows where we go from here short-term, but seems sentiment is shifting the same way most pundits forgot they were supposed to be auto-disappointed with WWDC

      And when all else fails I go back to “Uncle Carl sure seems to like AAPL these days.” Looking like a good buy for him

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