$AAPL Chart Checkup, 05/19/14 Market Close: An Unusually “Impatient” Uptrend Thus Far

New trend/countertrend highs, new closing high, return to megacap leadership. Are bulls getting ahead of themselves or is there a stronger momentum to this uptrend that wasn’t there in uptrends of recent past? Time for a look at the charts to see if we can find semi-clues.

(Click for full resolution charts)

5-min chart:

aapl-5min-051914close

– A micro-timeframe bull flag from the final hour or so of trading yesterday led to 15 minutes of very bullish price action at market open, setting the tone for most of the rest of the day. And even from this zoomed in, yes, it sure looks like another bull flag is forming. Will it trigger is the question for Tuesday. Well, if it does, today’s bull flag on this timeframe “suggests” a measured move of around 8-9 points on the fairly conservative side.

– No, I did not adjust the top (parallel, green) ascending trendline. It’s just one of those things, I guess. Wow.

– Didn’t quite close above 605 today, but how many of us expected to see 600 and the prior intraday high surpassed with such “authority”? Be honest, all 75 or so of you. (Thanks for stopping by, and I always welcome more visitors, so retweet and recommend if you like what you read!)

– Sellers brought AAPL down to about 603 for a few minutes in the late afternoon, but didn’t stop AAPL from closing at its highest level in many months.

– Remember that “mega-macro trendline” I keep referring to? It shows up better in the next chart and gives some additional context to today’s fairly potent up move.

Hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-051914close

– AAPL finds itself above the mega-macro trendline once again, the last visit above the line being (and ending) May 6. Will it manage to hold above for two days running, which it didn’t back then?

– Well, MACD-h and the oscillators all seem quite bullish right now (yes, permabears, the “overbought”/”due for a pullback” part is silent). Interestingly, it looks like AAPL bounced decently off the hourly EMA-8.

– This marks the first time since immediately post-earnings that AAPL has shown some significant range expansion on an hourly Bollinger Bands basis. Bandwidth’s about 30 points vs. the previous “norm” of 15-20 starting from around late April. And really, this looks more like a slightly delayed resolution to the upside. May 15, 10:00AM EST saw Bollinger bandwidth at just slightly over 5 points, and just as it looked like the “price decision gate” pointed south, AAPL reversed course and got bullish in very short order.

– Is there more upside in store, or is AAPL at the very minimum due for a little rest ‘n retrace? This is a much more controlled and less frenetic move than in late April, but we’ll see. Just for fun, I’m thinking AAPL gets closer to 610 before any revisitation of 600 (first-hour-of-trading quirks aside), but you guys know all about the blog disclaimers.

Wrapping up with the daily chart:

aapl-daily-051914close

– None of the previous three uptrends (as I measure them anyway, your opinion may vary and for good reason) have had this kind of bullish momentum after hitting the first “rest stop”. AAPL bull flagged fairly cleanly for a little over 10 days, and then proceeded to make higher highs. Note also that by making higher highs, AAPL has by definition “broken out” of any descending channel you could possibly think of. Sure, AAPL could be starting a descending channel now, you never know. But it’s very clear now that this particular uptrend is highly unique compared to the past several months.

– MACD-h is still negative, technically. I’m not sure that’s of much solace to bears at the moment.

One micro-timeframe bullish objective (see my notes about the 5-min chart) could put AAPL at a few points over 610. If you measure from April, perhaps there’s a measured move target as high as the mid-620s or so.

– Measure from April 24, and that target may approach 640. Measure from April 23, the day of the earnings announcement, and we may be talking an “implied move” of around 75 points – depending on your measuring point, that could bring AAPL to around 670.

– Now, I’m not calling those anything like “guaranteed” price targets…though if they’re reached within the next couple months or so…totally called it. 😀 But they are, at least to me, very legitimate measured move target ranges. If AAPL truly is showing bullish promise over and above the prior descending-channel-type price action, then it’s reasonable to expect AAPL to start heading towards those prices, signposts, whatever you want to call them. Now if AAPL gets bearish at some point – which it eventually will on the hourly or daily, the two charts I post most often – you can expect me to point out at least a bearish price objective or two. And you can always remind me in the comments or on Twitter if I don’t. 😉

It’s been a breath-taking move since earnings, but bulls do have a case that AAPL spent a very constructive two weeks and change catching its breath and storing up momentum for last Friday, this Monday, and beyond. Can it continue tomorrow? I’ll see you then!

 

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