$AAPL Chart Checkup, 5/16/14 Market Close: A Different Kind of Uptrend – For Now

“PROGRAMMING NOTE”: Posting schedule is settling down to the “norm” of 2-3 times per week. Please feel free to follow along on Twitter in between blog updates, if you like.

Apple looked…pretty darn good this week, all things considered. But is AAPL still in a range, showing potential signs of renewed momentum, or something else? Time for a look at the charts for the “week in review” and to search for sorta-clues.

(Click for full resolution charts – the daily chart in particular)

5-min chart:

aapl-051714-5min-close

– Lower ascending trendline back in play (note the hourly chart). Funny how certain trendlines make themselves known – lately, anyway. Note how the oscillators on this timeframe are really revving up on Friday vs. the rest of the week. That’s different.

– Way-too-cursory formation review for the week: Micro-timeframe inverted head and shoulders trigger; clean bull flag formation; breakout failure/micro head and shoulders formation; possible micro bear flag trigger on Thursday; clean inverted head and shoulders formation and trigger from Thursday/Friday and a break above the measured move target, and then some.

Hourly chart:

aapl-051714hourly-close

– Bollinger Bands actually did have a volatility compression point, but it didn’t amount to much – and on Friday, AAPL’s hourly chart is much improved from a bullish perspective.

– Really, MACD-h, oscillators, and price action are all converging to the bullish, “right on schedule”. But will there actually be a breakout attempt in the next trading day or two?

– Note the orange parallel reference channel. If AAPL’s acting differently from the prior months – which is to say, headed for a serious upside move after a relatively short break, versus a many-week consolidation descending channel of a “base case” – it “should” find its way out in relatively short order, and “not look back”.

Daily chart:

aapl-051714daily-close

– I decided to make the daily chart larger than usual to illustrate a potentially important distinction between this uptrend and the past three AAPL’s been through since last July or so.

– Four out of five down days. Followed by four out of five up days. See something similar during the initial consolidation phase of those last three uptrends? (Yep. Didn’t think so.)

– Why it happens, I don’t know, but I do know that bears, sellers, whatever market forces tried to push AAPL lower right around the time MACD-h crossed over negative. So what happened after Thursday? A bullish engulfing candle on Friday. (If my charting platform is correct, Friday’s open was lower than Thursday’s close by exactly one penny.) There are worse ways to “recover” from the previous day’s bearish engulfing candle, but maybe it’s just me.

– Price action quite bullish (bears fought a losing battle after the first couple of hours), MACD-h still negative, oscillators not quite at their strongest level. Net result? “Just for fun”, I’m thinking the instaneous read heading into Monday is very bullish.

Wrapping up with the weekly chart:

aapl-051714weekly-close

– Four weeks after the hammer candle? Six words: Strong, strong, all kinds of strong. The red candle looks more like a break in the action than a sell signal, all things considered. It could all change, but for now? This really looks like a different kind of uptrend.

– At least two Trials of Sentiment™ are on the way – WWDC, with the keynote likely on June 2, and the 7-for-1 share split on June 6. A run at and past 600 by mid-week doesn’t seem unreasonable at all if AAPL really is set to deliver on its current bullish promise.

The broader markets seem even more unpredictable than usual, though the indices did end the week on a relatively high note. Well, I’ll try to be ready for anything on Monday – see you on the virtual trading floor then.

 

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