$AAPL Chart Checkup, 5/8/14: Fuel for the (Short-Term) Bear Case?

Another wild day for the markets…basically with a reversed storyline from yesterday. I’ll leave it to the plethora of other market commentators/news sources to tell you about the outgoing whipsaw-ness of it all.

The AAPL daily chart might be concerning for short-term bulls, depending on tomorrow. And the hot-off-the-press Beats Electronics acquisition talks might weigh, or they might not – I haven’t a clue.

Anyway, let’s take a look at AAPL charts going into Friday, subject to my ever-present disclaimers and the still-highly-uncertain market context (me personally, it feels dangerous to be a dedicated bull in this market, but who knows).

15-min chart:

aapl-5min-050814close

– I was wrong. That does look like a bear flag over the past few days. Now is that measured move upon a trigger more like 7 points (starting around May 7) or 15 points (starting around May 6)? And, as we’ve already seen just recently, would a trigger necessarily mean a move of either amount, whether more or less? Beats me.

– I guess that shooting star candle right at noon EST was a warning for intraday bulls – it shows up on the 5-min chart as well.

– Head and shoulders formation(s) appearing? From May 2 or so, or maybe a few days farther back? Blue line is just my scribble, your take (for example, whether you think it’s a head and shoulders formation at all) may vary. Whatever the case, the measured move calculations wouldn’t vary too much – say, 12-16 points?

Hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-050814close

– No Bollinger Band range expansion yet – and that last hourly candle is potentially interesting for tactical bulls – but it’s undeniable that weakness persists while AAPL decides whether to visit the high 590s or low 580s first. (Strictly “for fun”, I’m guessing low 580s first unless the broader markets stabilize, which certainly isn’t happening right now.)

– Under my current “Fibonacci” test, AAPL “should” hold the 61.8% retrace level (slightly below 584) to “prove” it’s still in short-term uptrend.

– Aside from that level, there’s also 586-ish (which AAPL held) and 582-ish as micro reference levels. Next downside reference level could be about 575, the peak of AAPL’s previous uptrend move.

Daily chart:

aapl-daily-050814close

– Semi-symmetry watch? Note the two “potential reversal signal” candles from today and from Aug. 26 last year.

– Just me, DYODD and the rest, but I’m starting to wonder if the price action is signaling more intermediate-term descending channel than it is short-term bull flag at this point.

Somehow I doubt Friday will be any easier to figure out, much less navigate if you’re a more active trader. Promises to be yet another interesting trading session tomorrow – best of luck to all.

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