AAPL Chart Checkup, 5/1/14: Bears Still in the Game, Bulls Still in the Lead

No, not those Bulls…better luck next season. Hey, anything can happen in the brutal crucible of the NBA Playoffs. Kinda like the stock markets, except this full-contact sport goes year-round.

Right…bad puns don’t do my limited readership numbers any favors. 😛

So! While we try to figure out the next major move (translation – the current move is still very much intact) – AAPL didn’t set any new highs, set a new micro-trend low, “defied” a potential shooting star omen with a relatively quiet inside day, and actually ended up slightly green, basically in-line with how the NASDAQ fared. All that and more in 6.5 hours.

Confused yet? I sure am! 😀

And that’s why I always look to the charts to try and make some sense of the day that was – even though it doesn’t (and can’t) “tell” me about what’s just around the corner nearly enough.

(I usually don’t post four charts per post, so expect something more like two after AAPL gives us more to work with, so to speak.)

5-min chart:


– Darn you, right shoulder (ugh, “called it”, and worse still, didn’t take advantage of it).

– Remember how yesterday’s micro-breakout was bullish with asterisks, on account of the being less than the “suggested” measured move, and then falling off almost 10 points? We have an opposite situation today.

– The micro head and shoulders pattern, conservatively, had a measured move of around 6 points, really more like 8 or 9 to me. So, yes, broke below the neckline and triggered…but only four points at the most.

– And that’s not all. As was decently visible even to the summary intraday chart on Google Finance (y’know, the one that pops up when you type in a stock symbol in the search field), AAPL spent the next 90-120 minutes forming a micro inverted head and shoulders (see small orange neckline closer to the bottom). That mini-measured move of a little over 3 points was met.

– And when you zoom out from this super-short timeframe to include yesterday afternoon’s drop, what might be forming after about a day and a half of trading? Yup, another inverted head and shoulders – this one with a measured move of around 6-7 points. We’ll see if it triggers.

– Very interesting how all three patterns are easy to notice…after the fact. *sigh*

– Last quick point before dialing back the micro – 586-ish support I mentioned yesterday did hold for the time being.

15-min chart:


– Bollinger Band situation went from a bit iffy to neutral. As anyone more experienced in technicals than I surely knows, BBs on shorter timeframes aren’t so instructive for intermediate-timeframe moves. Let’s just see what happens when there’s a decisive resolution one way or the other.

– Oscillators picking up some steam, though tomorrow is, of course, OpEx Friday.

Hourly chart:


– Still waiting on something to happen on this timeframe, as the micro downtrend/oversold condition continues.

– Personally, I think you’d need to have bearish-tinted glasses on to see a head and shoulders pattern forming with so little data, but hey, how about this. If AAPL doesn’t trigger that micro inverted head and shoulders pattern, could be a point in the bear column.

– I also drew a quick downward trendline for reference. If there’s a descending channel/falling wedge continuation pattern forming, it would probably be best that AAPL resolve it to the upside before too much longer, considering the angle of descent.

Finishing up with the daily chart:


– This one’s an easy call even for me – bulls are still firmly in control. Bears tried to press their case after a bearish candle, all they could come up with was a green day and an inside day at that. Yes, that micro-Fibonacci 38.2% retrace level I mentioned yesterday didn’t hold, but the Fib level sustainable uptrends “should” hold is 61.8% – and a quick visual check is enough to confirm that level (which is a little below 583) hasn’t been reached yet.

– Of course, bulls weren’t quite able to put up a model hammer candle to really put bears on the defensive, and volume was around half of yesterday. But AAPL’s still holding 590, and the latest battle for the mega-macro trendline isn’t over yet.

Next up, OpEx Friday. Always “fun”, and actually potentially interesting, considering the significant change in sentiment from just a few weeks ago. See you on the virtual trading floor then!



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