AAPLTalk Weekend, 12/20/13 Market Close: Just a Quick Chart Survey as China Mobile “And” Apple Deal Becomes Reality

What do you know.  The “Clash of the Titans” ended with a deal.

The joint press release says it all:   “China Mobile & Apple Bring iPhone to China Mobile’s 4G & 3G Networks on January 17, 2014”

“Finally.” And on a much, much, bigger scale than the much-delayed white iPhone 4.

This is news on an epic scale, which may well outweigh technicals in the near term.  So for today, I’ll just take a quick survey of the hourly, daily and weekly charts to see how the technical narrative and the China Mobile deal narratives “fit together”.

To put it a different way:  Do the charts, in this home gamer’s exceedingly humble opinion, “allow” for bullishness after the recent breakout failure at 575?

Hourly chart:


– In terms of Fib retrace levels, AAPL “held” the 61.8% sub-uptrend retrace level (if it holds, conventional wisdom AFAIK is that the uptrend being measured remains valid) and actually looks a bit micro bullish on this timeframe.  Hourly BBs narrowing with AAPL solidly in the upper half; MACD-h positive – the Williams oscillator returned to “overbought”/very bullish reading for the first time since early December, and trending up pretty well overall.

– That price gap around 546 was taken care of, with a price gap from 551-554 as a near-term area/possible “magnet” that AAPL could “backfill” in the coming days.

Daily chart:


– Nice hammer on Wednesday, not a great red candle on Thursday, but a green inside day candle on Friday, potentially suggesting that AAPL’s finding its footing as it “takes a break”.  AAPL regaining ground on Monday would seem consistent with recent price action.

– Not to say the chart is all positive.  AAPL is slightly below the SMA-20 amidst a significant narrowing of the daily BBs.  Getting back above mid-channel would be very helpful for AAPL bulls in the short term.

– AAPL held the yellow/gold trendline I’m tracking.  While MACD-h is trending lower, the oscillators are beginning their bounce from oversold levels.  In other words, the technical setup looks at least decent from this timeframe as well.  And in terms of the bigger picture, AAPL is currently off about 26 points from a 187-point move, without a “serious” retest of the previous sub-uptrend high of 539-ish (the previous breakout failure on Oct. 29).  So, yep, intermediate uptrend still looks all kinds of strong.

Weekly chart:


– Two spooky inverted hammer-esque candles…followed by a 5-ish point move lower week-to-week.  Could be worse.

– A case could be made for a bull flag formation starting from the Nov. 29 candle.  And the uptrend recovery from the multi-month cascade is actually of a significantly gentler slope overall, which to me is an indicator of sustainability (at least until AAPL breaks above the light blue mega-macro trendline).

It’s just my non-expert 2 cents, but seems like technicals, fundamentals and news are still aligned, and in a bullish way to boot.  I have a feeling AAPL longs (including myself) will be cheery (or at least, cheerier) long past next week.

Happy holidays to all, and see you on the trading floor for what promises to be a lively Monday trading session!

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