AAPLTalk Week in Review, 12/13/13 Market Close: Break Time Continues As China Mobile Launch Looms

Accounting for time zones, it’s around two days until China Mobile announces and/or formally starts up its 4G (TD)-LTE network (December 18).

And what did AAPL do in the relative absence of news?  Net retrace for the week, down about 5.5 points from the previous Friday’s close.

This “drought” of news won’t last for long.  Here’s my very humble take on China Mobile-related sentiment measuring points just ahead:

1) Pre-December 18: any pre-announcements, leaks or “on the ground” observations (well, aside from the China Mobile Beijing pre-reservation-looking page and the PRC and Me blog)

2) December 18 itself – announcements, pricing, availability (both in terms of ordering and sales channels)

3) Whenever it is TD-LTE iPhones can actually be bought (note: Apple’s December quarter ends on Saturday, December 28 – don’t ask me about where time zones factor in)

4) Any initial data points (real or imagined :/) on sales and shipments (the likelihood of numbers from Apple seems low to me – I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple took the VeriPhone 4 route and didn’t give out numbers, even though the 5S is actually about as new as the 5 was when it launched in China last year)

5) Any indirect “color” on China Mobile in the form of a fiscal Q1 2014 guidance revision (or non-revision revision) anytime before the earnings release, which based on past history should be around late January.

Now for a quick look at the hourly, daily and weekly charts.

Hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-121313close

– Don’t mind the new parallel channel too much.  I’ve just put it there  to see if it might have relevance later.  All we have is two points of a downtrend line so far.

– AAPL has, in my highly non-expert opinion, set up in parallel channels very nicely on multiple occasions lately, but past patterns are no guarantee of the future, of course.  In retrospect, maybe we’ve been “spoiled” by the recent “predictability” of the channels.

– AAPL “lost” the “mega-macro trendline” for the time being.

– Wedge-type price action (theoretically bullish), or more head-and-shoulders-type?  Beats me.

– Hourly MACD-h has been mostly negative for longer than usual recently.  Oscillators I track are now reading oversold, and the hourly BBs are implying potential for downside follow-through (though there hasn’t been a “decision gate” like that on the daily chart).

– The next price gap to watch looks to be around 546-548.  In terms of the current uptrend (based on last breakout), AAPL’s holding above the 38.2% retrace level for now.

Daily chart:

aapl-daily-121313close

– Four down days in a row (last seen in early August, IIRC).  Two bearish engulfing candles in three days.  Micro-timeframe bearish for sure.

– Daily MACD-h just crossed over into negative territory, also a bearish sign.  On this timeframe, the Williams %R and RSI oscillators I track are just starting to pull back from overbought territory.

– The EMA-8 was “lost”, with the next moving average, the EMA-21, at 547ish.  AAPL is still trading about 10 points over mid-channel (the SMA-20).

Weekly chart:

aapl-weekly-121313close

– Overall, nothing to worry about intermediate-trend-wise if you’re an AAPL bull, it would seem.  Well, except for those two toppy-looking candles the past two weeks.  Are they both inverted hammers?  Or at least one of them?  I’m no expert, but we’ll see if they hinted at anything in the next several weeks or even months.

Big week for Apple the company.  As far as AAPL prior to earnings?  It’s an interesting trading situation – technicals looking bearish near-term (the weekly candles are tough for me to ignore), with highly potent, seemingly bullish news around the corner (China Mobile has 750M or so subscribers, China has a population of about 1.3 or so billion, China Mobile has maybe 15 to 45 million current iPhone subscribers depending on which news reports you believe – yep, seems like there’s opportunity around there somewhere).  Is it consolidation or the beginnings of further retrace, even corrective-type trading?  Will the AAPL story “drive” or “outweigh” the technicals?  Don’t ask me. 😀

See you on the trading floor tomorrow!

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