AAPLTalk Weekend, 12/6/13 Market Close: Break Time More Than Breakdown So Far

A lot of news, a decent amount of weekly movement (a range of almost 25 points for the week), and at Friday close, a modest $3.95 gain from the Friday before.

Time for a break?  In retrospect…”sure, why not”.

While we wait to see what’ll happen next with AAPL (still very firmly in uptrend, of course, but having met the first significant resistance since around the Nov. 26 breakout), with the big Dec. 18 date not far away (the day China Mobile’s new 4G network is said to officially launch), let’s see if there’s any indirect maybe-clues from the charts.

Hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-120613close

– A little “history repeating”, kinda sorta? (Circled areas.)

– There was a sorta-H&S-type pattern from around mid-Oct/mid-Nov which caused AAPL to dip for about a week, though it didn’t look like a full measured move-type trigger.  Moving to the second, smaller circled area, you have a 2/3 H&S-esque formation, or a smaller H&S-looking formation from Dec. 3 to Friday (it’s easier to see on shorter timeframes).

– From this more micro perspective, there just don’t seem to be many reference points yet.  Using price action from months ago doesn’t seem all that useful, because AAPL was trading in a highly volatile manner back then.  Me personally (remember, total amateur here), I’d like 560 or so to hold (would weaken the micro H&S theory), and, “failing that”, for AAPL to either protect the gap at around 557or just fill the gap at 551 and get the gap fill over with quickly.  I mean, no air pocket-type trading please, but I think you know what I mean. 😀  Not far below that, there is another price gap starting from around 545 that’s worth paying attention to.  545 could be an interesting confluence point as a 15-point measured move from 560 potential H&S neckline to the 575 breakout trend top gets us to that level.

– Since AAPL has moved almost “too quickly” since Nov. 26, it’s tough to say what’ll happen next – we don’t have anything like that turned-out-to-be-very-instructive multi-week parallel descending channel at this point.

– Hourly oscillator and MACD-h readings I track are pointing to “oversold”/very-micro-term downtrend – we’ll see how AAPL deals with those conditions.

– It is interesting to see AAPL trading near the bottom of the hourly BB, though on that timeframe (and given the lack of an apparent volatility crush) I’m not sure it’s saying anything more than we already know (AAPL is acting a bit weak right now, we get that, thanks :P).

– It’ll also be interesting to see if the mega-macro trendline will be anything more than a general composure guide anytime soon.

Daily chart:

aapl-daily-120613close

– Zooming back a bit, while the daily technicals I track were weak on the hourly, they’re still bullish/overbought/signaling uptrend on the daily.

– Let me know if you see any bearish candle patterns based on the past 3-5 days of price action – for me, I just see the 2 filled candles as a “uptrend may be headed for a pause at the very least” maybe-hint.  Wish I’d taken the hint when AAPL bounced off 575 – but hey, I guess I gotta be much more nimble in this market if I’m trading on shorter timeframes.

– AAPL being contained by the upper BB isn’t a bad thing in and of itself.  Meanwhile, the lower BB is hooking upward – I choose to be the optimist for now and say that having implied price support approaching AAPL’s current price is a good thing.

– Using basic Fib retrace levels from what I think is a reasonable sub-uptrend measuring point (513.67), AAPL “lost” the 23.6% level, with the “strong uptrend” 38.2% retrace level at around 552 and the “still a decent uptrend if it holds” 61.8% retrace reference level at around 537. In terms of moving averages, the EMA-8 is a shade under 555 as of Friday’s close – five points below.

Overall, a strong multi-day move and some pensive/retrace-type action afterward.  If it’s “only” retrace (and honestly, the closer you are to buy-and-hold, the less you care about two little days like this) it would certainly seem welcome from a rest/recharge/bullish sustainability perspective.  Let’s see where we go from here.  Onward to Monday!

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