AAPLTalk Weekend, 11/24/13: Still Waiting at the Decision Gate (But With a New Reference Channel?)

A mini-roller coaster of a week has passed us by.  And at the end of the week, AAPL ended…about 5 points below the previous week’s close.

Not “good”, of course, but sure doesn’t seem like resolution of the serious volatility crush on the daily chart yet, does it?  Nope.

AAPL has yet to make a decisive move above 525-530 or below the low 510s.  So, is there anything new?  Maybe a fairly new reference price channel, if nothing else.

Looking first at the daily chart:


– More mixed signals.

– As far as bearish signs:  MACD-h still in the negative.  An inverted hammer-type candle to close out the week, which would seem bearish in isolation (then again, the range was 3.5 points, so not sure how much of a “topping tail” we’ve really got here).  AAPL a bit below mid-channel as the price range has yet to expand.  Very low volume throughout the week.

– On the other hand:  Intermediate trend isn’t being threatened in the least.  AAPL is still holding over the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level of the sub-uptrend measuring from 475 (post-air pocket).  And it appears that AAPL may be trading within a price channel.  Whether AAPL can breakout from there and prove the channel was a bullish indicator, time will tell.

– If you take a look at the potential price channel itself (light green parallel lines), you’ll notice that AAPL closed right around “mid-channel”.  Not in a “constructive” way, but not conclusively bearish either.  Call it a slight bias to the downside going into Monday?  (Me, I don’t have a clue.)

Wrapping up with the hourly chart:


– Maybe we do have something of a micro parallel channel (established around Nov. 15 or so).    A lot of price action seems pretty decently “contained” within a range of about 18.5 points.  And from this view, it looks like AAPL is actually trading slightly above mid-channel.  No, it’s not a mid-channel like the daily SMA-20, but if this parallel channel is “for real”, maybe it means something.  As of Friday, the top of the channel was at around 527, and the lower trendline was around 509.

– AAPL is still slightly below the yellow reference trendline.  Of course, AAPL will have to break above at some point in order to make new highs.

– The hourly chart actually looks a bit micro bullish, considering the potential micro bull flag formation from Thursday to Friday and the MACD-h/Williams oscillator readings.

Clearly I was wrong about the major volatility crush resolving the past week.  How about this holiday-shortened week?  We’ll just have to wait and see.

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