AAPLTalk Weekend, 11/17/13: Decision Gate

Having not been following the AAPL charts all that closely as AAPL bounced between around 512 and 529 post-earnings, I didn’t notice what others already have – the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart were compressing in a manner we haven’t seen in a very long while (a differential of just about 18 points).

If I’m reading my chart right, there hasn’t been this significant a volatility squeeze on the daily chart since, well, as far back as mine tracks historical BBs (around late December 2011).  It might seem to suggest that AAPL is more than due for some move of some significance in either direction.

So it’s probably a good thing I’m taking notice of it – though what I can do about it is a completely different deal.  Well, if nothing else, there’s always typing up a tabloid technicals post! 😀

Looking first at the daily chart:

aapl-daily-111513close

– As it so happens, despite the rocky trading post-earnings (kicked off by that foreboding bearish engulfing candle), there was very little damage done to the chart, considering.  That prior resistance of 513 which AAPL traded over wasn’t exactly a false floor (AAPL traded below it slightly, but eventually bounced above it), and that micro-trend low from Oct. 22 at 508ish wasn’t approached.  The great majority of trading days after the bearish engulfing candle have had relatively narrow trading ranges, with relatively anemic volume to boot.

– AAPL is actually over all but one of the potential downtrend lines I have fanning out from around October 25 as the origination point.

– MACD-h had a negative crossover, but it’s been quite shallow.  There was a drop from around 527 to 512, but AAPL stayed below 520 for only one day.  MACD-h is currently making an attempt to break into positive territory.

– The Williams oscillator went briefly oversold, but all things considered has worked off the overbought condition with relatively little drama as far as price action.

– No question AAPL could have looked a little better going into the current “decision gate”.  AAPL attempted to go green but ended up putting in an inverted hammer-like candle (though in candle terms I think it’s still an inside day).  At the same time, AAPL’s still slightly above mid-channel (at around 523), and is still slightly over all moving averages, including the EMA-8 that AAPL traded below, and then back above recently (on a non-div-adjusted basis it’s about 25 cents below the SMA-20). Will AAPL stay above mid-channel?

– Next week will hopefully give useful clues as to whether the Oct. 29 post-earnings “bummer candle” calls into question what might otherwise be considered a very constructive consolidation/descending channel/bull-flag-looking micro formation.

Wrapping up with the hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-111513close

– A mixed bag on a micro scale (it’ll be interesting to see if the MACD-h being currently negative amounts to anything), but in terms of pure price action, it’s interesting to see how a potential head and shoulders-seeming formation from Oct. 21 to Nov. 1 or 6 hasn’t panned out.  AAPL broke the red line, but never dipped more than 7 points below it – so it doesn’t look like much of a bearish trigger of any kind at this point.

All things considered, Apple weathered the most recent sentiment checkpoints well.  iPad Air and iPad mini retina have been well-received and are supply-constrained, but not past 5-10 business days to ship online.  iPhone supply looks to be improving as the worldwide launch continues.  No initial sales numbers, once again no China Mobile news, and yet AAPL’s held in there.  The broader markets’ resiliency, perhaps boosted by the Janet Yellen Fed nomination, might be helping AAPL for once.

The “problem” is that AAPL hasn’t made a decisive move either under 510ish or over 530ish just yet.  My completely wild guess is that the bias is slightly positive on account of AAPL having held the upper range of the intermediate uptrend for so long…post-earnings AAPL “disappointments” have been far, far worse.  But no one knows for sure whether 510ish or 530ish will happen first.  We’ll see if next week brings resolution…I think it will.  Could be just me, but I doubt AAPL will be waiting outside this latest decision gate for long.

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2 thoughts on “AAPLTalk Weekend, 11/17/13: Decision Gate

  1. Thanks! It’s not really a start-stop thing, there just hasn’t been much to talk about lately, and I do “take breaks” from posting now and then since it’s longer-form content. I’m on Twitter pretty regularly though.

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