AAPLTalk, 10/29/13 Market Close: Profit-Taking or Bearish Engulfing Skepticism? Plus, More Trials of Sentiment?

What’s the opposite of constructive upward price action?  Today.

Now, it’s not necessarily an extreme reaction to earnings on a relative scale.  And one day doesn’t make or break a trend…usually?  But the 25-point trading range is still formidable in absolute terms (only iCahn Tweet Day had a bigger intraday trading range this intermediate uptrend).

And it’s a very unsettling bearing engulfing candle for AAPL bulls (potent red candle engulfing the open-to-last trading ranges of the previous five trading days) to take notice of as multiple new trials of sentiment await.  (Aside from WS/analyst reaction to earnings and guidance, which the market apparently deemed “not good enough” today.)  You may have different sentiment signposts, you might not think any exist, but here are the ones I’m seeing:

1) iPad launch on Nov. 1.  This is a tricky one.  When iPad 3 launched, Apple provided Wi-Fi-only iPad 3 sales.  When iPad 4 + mini launched, Apple provided Wi-Fi-only iPad 4 + mini sales (launch spanned about 30 countries, not including China), as cellular models wouldn’t launch for some weeks.  No other initial sales data was given (for example, nothing for the China iPad launch).

This time around, Apple has only one new model to launch, but the first profoundly redesigned model in two generations (iPad Air) with both Wi-Fi and cellular versions available, now available in 40 or so countries (including China).  Oh, and this time it launches Thursday, not Friday.  [My mistake, Nov. 1 is a Friday.] Tough compares – they’re not just for earnings.  Will there be a initial sales report?  No clue.  I do have a clue as to market “bias” if there isn’t an initial sales report, but we all already know what that bias is more likely to be.

2) China Mobile “4G” network launch (is it happening around Nov. 9-11 as is being rumored, and if so, are there featured smartphone OEMs for this launch?)

3) Retina iPad mini launch (which, depending on how you interpret Tim Cook’s conference call remarks, is of uncertain popularity, or insufficient supply).

Many, many levels to watch in the coming weeks.  Resistance, support, moving averages, trendlines, Fib retrace levels, other reference levels.  When there’s tremendous uncertainty, making any kind of read other than “it seemed like a good/bad day” is tough, at least for a self-semi-taught technicals type like me.

So we’ll go back to basics and let the chart speak for itself.  I’ll check back now and then to to try and get a handle on where things stand.

Daily chart:


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