AAPLTalk, 10/29/13 Market Close: Profit-Taking or Bearish Engulfing Skepticism? Plus, More Trials of Sentiment?

What’s the opposite of constructive upward price action?  Today.

Now, it’s not necessarily an extreme reaction to earnings on a relative scale.  And one day doesn’t make or break a trend…usually?  But the 25-point trading range is still formidable in absolute terms (only iCahn Tweet Day had a bigger intraday trading range this intermediate uptrend).

And it’s a very unsettling bearing engulfing candle for AAPL bulls (potent red candle engulfing the open-to-last trading ranges of the previous five trading days) to take notice of as multiple new trials of sentiment await.  (Aside from WS/analyst reaction to earnings and guidance, which the market apparently deemed “not good enough” today.)  You may have different sentiment signposts, you might not think any exist, but here are the ones I’m seeing:

1) iPad launch on Nov. 1.  This is a tricky one.  When iPad 3 launched, Apple provided Wi-Fi-only iPad 3 sales.  When iPad 4 + mini launched, Apple provided Wi-Fi-only iPad 4 + mini sales (launch spanned about 30 countries, not including China), as cellular models wouldn’t launch for some weeks.  No other initial sales data was given (for example, nothing for the China iPad launch).

This time around, Apple has only one new model to launch, but the first profoundly redesigned model in two generations (iPad Air) with both Wi-Fi and cellular versions available, now available in 40 or so countries (including China).  Oh, and this time it launches Thursday, not Friday.  [My mistake, Nov. 1 is a Friday.] Tough compares – they’re not just for earnings.  Will there be a initial sales report?  No clue.  I do have a clue as to market “bias” if there isn’t an initial sales report, but we all already know what that bias is more likely to be.

2) China Mobile “4G” network launch (is it happening around Nov. 9-11 as is being rumored, and if so, are there featured smartphone OEMs for this launch?)

3) Retina iPad mini launch (which, depending on how you interpret Tim Cook’s conference call remarks, is of uncertain popularity, or insufficient supply).

Many, many levels to watch in the coming weeks.  Resistance, support, moving averages, trendlines, Fib retrace levels, other reference levels.  When there’s tremendous uncertainty, making any kind of read other than “it seemed like a good/bad day” is tough, at least for a self-semi-taught technicals type like me.

So we’ll go back to basics and let the chart speak for itself.  I’ll check back now and then to to try and get a handle on where things stand.

Daily chart:


AAPLTalk, Pre-Fiscal Q4 2013 Earnings: Does(n’t) Context Matter?

PREFACE:  I obviously don’t have a clue how AAPL will trade after earnings, regardless of the results.  You can make bullish and bearish cases from the exact same charts – the main point of this post is to take a quick, somewhat more “holistic” view of the daily and weekly charts.

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The AAPL Tree turns (in) 100 (posts)

Just noticed the post counter is over 100. To my dozen or so regular readers, thanks for coming along on this humble blog experiment!

It’s a lot of work, especially the horoscope chart reads and around earnings time, so if you find my blog of sufficient entertainment value to check back now and then, feel free to subscribe via RSS or e-mail, or even better, follow me on Twitter (@AAPLTree), or “tell a friend”! Knowing I have readers and followers is a big help!

Thanks again. Don’t worry, I shouldn’t be typing another post like this for at least 50 or 100 posts, assuming the blog gets that far. 😀 We now resume our normal Apple/AAPL multi-topic blogging schedule.

Deciphering the Oppenheimer Code, Fiscal Q4 2013 Edition (Consolidated Links)

All five parts of the September 2013 quarter Oppenheimer Code (AAPL earnings preview) series linked in one place, just in case you missed one (or more) and actually wanted to catch up :D.

Part 1 – Net income guidance

Part 2 – Potential revenue scenario – a thought exercise (not my home game estimate)

Part 3 – Operating expenses preview

Part 4 – Gross margin preview

Part 5 – Analyst expectations for fiscal Q4 2013 earnings and fiscal Q1 2014 earnings

I’ll put the links up in the Fundamentals Archive (where the fiscal Q3 2013 edition links are) sometime after the earnings release.

AAPLTalk QuickTake, 10/23/13: No New Ground, But No Red Flags Either

Wall Street didn’t go crazy over Apple’s newest iPads, but they might have net liked ’em.  The result:  A relatively quiet up day from AAPL.  Most of the excitement was right at market open – the first 15 minutes almost defined the entire intraday range.  But after about 11AM EST, AAPL didn’t look back and more or less drifted right back up to 525, breaking slightly above 525 before closing a nickel shy at 524.95.  It’s not a new intraday trend high, but it is a new intermediate trend closing high. 525-528ish a resistance zone?

A few quick notes before the charts.

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The Oppenheimer Code, Fiscal Q4 2013, Part 5: Turn Card, River Card – Weighing Analyst Earnings/Guidance Expectations

NOTE:  As a friendly reminder/disclaimer, this isn’t treatise-level or expert-level stuff, not even close.  Just one person’s exceedingly humble attempt to gain a bit more insight into Apple’s fundamentals.  This isn’t “forest from the trees” – it’s even higher up in the iClouds.  More expert AAPL fundamentals types need not read on.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

(Advance TL;DR warning.)

And now we reach the final part of my Oppenheimer Code series for the just-ended fiscal quarter – that darned expectations game.

In Texas Hold ‘Em terms, can Apple improve its hand in spite of the unhelpful flop?  (I’ll be here all week.)  And will Apple’s new product introductions (namely, iPad Air and high-res iPad mini) help – or hinder – Apple’s ability to post solid fiscal Q1 results?

While we mull that over (sorry, there’s no answers to be found in this post), let’s consult Yahoo! Finance to get an idea of analyst expectations.

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AAPLTalk, 10/21/13 Market Close: Two Pictures, Not a Thousand Words

Readings are overbought, but AAPL’s on a bullish tear with confirmed breakouts based on the descending channel, inverted head and shoulders, and making a new intermediate trend high.  Take my commentary with blocks of salt, but I can’t help but notice that all three “breakout types”, all related to today’s action, took several weeks to happen.

Long story short:  Chart’s looking really strong, though rest or retrace would seem increasingly due sometime soon.  (But maybe that’s just blah stocks like AAPL – not momo favorites like NFLX.)

Zero-commentary charts after the jump.  Very convenient that they speak for themselves anyway – my Oppenheimer Code posts are a lot of work.

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