AAPLTalk, Pre-Market Thoughts for Week of 9/30/13: Bad News Bears?

As we head into Monday, there’s a raft of…not great economic and political news weighing on both the futures and pre-market, with AAPL being no exception (being currently down over 1% in pre-market).

The headlines are easy enough to find and there are far better commentators on the stories and their underlying issues than myself.  So let’s just take a quick look at where AAPL’s been the past few days and hopefully there’ll be more clues in the days ahead.  While the Apple/AAPL story itself was at least kind of turning around after the test of 447, the market is souring in a significant way just as we head into a period of very poor visibility and high uncertainty.  None of those really relates to Apple much, aside from general worries about the world economy which obviously relates to consumer spending, but suffice it to say that waves of overall bad sentiment are more than capable of testing stocks with great charts and great stories behind them.  And while the intermediate chart isn’t too bad for AAPL at all, it’s still very much a stock trying to regain footing and market leadership after quite the multi-month fall.

Hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-092713close

– AAPL was looking to re-establish something of a bull flag formation, albeit still declining, which obviously can only go on for so long before the bullish hypothesis looks increasingly dubious.

– There’s also the potential reversal signals as far as a strange kind of inverse head and shoulders formation that looked around 3/4 formed as of Friday.  Unclear what Monday will do to that thesis.

– AAPL was looking to fight its way back into a “more aggressive” (really, more constructive) parallel channel (light blue).  I’ll be using that as a potential bull flag tracker from here on in.

– AAPL ended the week holding the gap from Sep. 20 (at 467), but getting closer to the intraday top/resistance for that same day (478.55).

– Overall, a controlled move, but without any bullish follow-through as of that point.

– There’s very little recent price history in terms of the huge bullish move from around 475 after the Carl Icahn tweet.  There’s actually a small gap around 478ish-480ish that AAPL filled in pre-market, with some recent micro resistance around 475.

Daily chart:

aapl-daily-092713close

– A wedge might have been said to have been forming (see red descending trendline and gold trendline), but the eight days of action well below the wedge do cast doubt on that formation theory.

– MACD-h crossed over into positive territory, but there was no real sign of micro uptrend, aside from the strong bounce from 447 when MACD-h was negative (albeit sloping upward).

– Volume really dried up on Thursday and Friday – my guess is that’ll change on Monday as bears attempt to make their move against the backdrop of a highly skittish market.

– 465-467ish (as a resistance zone that’s more recently been more like support, and also the general region of the 38.2% retrace of the overall intermediate uptrend from 388-ish to 513-ish) could be an interesting price area to watch (horizontal green line and dashed Fibonacci retrace level).

Where AAPL will go from here, who knows, but bullish market participants would be well advised to buckle up, so to speak.  Monday could be a really wild day.

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