AAPLTalk QuickTake, 9/23/13 Market Close: Return to Relevance

A somewhat tongue-in-cheek post title today, as Apple blows away most everyone’s projections with a very good “over 9 million” iPhones sold in the opening weekend (who cares about channel fill, really, it’s not like Apple has a reputation of stuffing the channel).

Combine that number with 200 million iOS 7 upgrades and a (somewhat amusing) clarification that guidance will come in at the upper end of projections, and you get one heck of a day.  Yup, another maddening gap up, but a statement-making one which is a nice change.  Congratulations to those who bet long in anticipation of today – wish I had, but I’d assume there’ll be other opportunities for tactical trades, hopefully with better visibility.  AAPL appears to be back in play, while the angry mob looking to drive Tim Cook from Cupertino and/or declare Apple doomed (any day now!  Just watch!) is quieted for the time being.  As if “Timid Tim”, as some call him, was really in grave danger of driving his company into irrelevance on the basis of a single day’s announcement.  Maybe it’d be make-or-break for other companies, but not Apple, not today.

So, how are those hourly and daily charts looking now?  (Remember, just click for full resolution.)

Hourly chart:


– Well how about that?  Just when I was wondering if that parallel descending channel I was following was irrelevant – it’s back in play, at least for now, at least in my uneducated opinion. 😀  Notably, it also “reasserted” itself by acting as a “barrier” when AAPL really tried to rev up at market open.  As if the close wasn’t good enough for AAPL bulls.  The breakout point to watch out for will be around 495ish by mid-week.  At least for this channel – more on that in a future post.

– AAPL briefly tried to get back to the base uptrend channel, but really, you can only ask so much from AAPL, particularly on an broader market down day (see also: attempted breakout from descending channel).

– AAPL tested 482.60ish twice and held each time, which was interesting.  So maybe 482ish is a new point of reference.

– So was that an island bottom breakout, sort of?  Even though there’s no sign of the breakout aside from the gap up?  Not a clue.

– All in all, the instanteous read just looks a whole lot better, as if the last 10 or so sessions were almost an anomaly.

Daily chart:


– Dare AAPL bulls call this a pro gap?  A 15-point gap is nothing to scoff at, and in some ways it’s more reassuring than a gap of almost _30_ points.  Why?  It’s just me, but bears and profit-takers made their moves, and AAPL held up nonetheless.  AAPL was challenged, and bulls responded.  A superb “repudiation” of the bearish engulfing candle from Friday.

– MACD-h is making great strides, heading back upward as quickly as it crashed just a handful of sessions ago.

– The Williams oscillator actually isn’t at an overbought reading just yet, which could be interesting.

– Strong bounce very close to the SMA-20.

– Importantly for AAPL bulls (which includes myself at present), AAPL had “reasons” to be up as much as it was today.  Since the stock is so dependent on sentiment, a strong number like 9 million initial iPhone sales just might affect the market’s psychology as we head into earnings.  After all, 9 million iPhones sold is one-third of the units sold in the year-ago quarter – and that was when iPhone 5 launched to comparatively “disappointing” reception of “over 5 million” sold the first weekend.

A quick note of caution:  There’s a circulating “counterpoint” that Apple enhanced the 9 million iPhone initial sales number by channel-filling with a bunch of less-popular iPhone 5C units, even though that number is inherently unknowable.  It’s true that sell-in is recognized as a sale/as revenue under GAAP accounting; we’ll see if that impacts AAPL much over the next few sessions.

From threatening to fall below all of the moving averages to soaring above them all.  That AAPL weathervane’s just been spinning all over the place lately.

But I think the key takeaway is that the Apple Inc. story is crystallizing after AAPL faced (and passed) a tough short-term test.  AAPL strongly reaffirmed its intermediate uptrend at a very opportune time.  Now can  AAPL keep the momentum going or is it due for another break after a monster move?  Whatever the case, good luck on the trading floor tomorrow!

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