AAPLTalk Late Night, 9/17/13 Market Close: Are Strong iPhone Reviews Enough to Counter a Weak Bounce?

The day started fairly promising for AAPL, but momentum *cough* tapered off at the end, representing a 5-and-change-point bounce after a nearly uninterrupted, air-pocket filled 60-point slide.

Earlier this evening, iPhone 5C and 5S reviews came in, about as expected.  Which is to say, generally quite positive (maybe a bit better than I expected) with some quibbles here and there (as expected).  They’re easy to find so I won’t link to them here.

I didn’t think of the review phase as a “Trial of Sentiment” because iPhones have always been generally good-or-better-quality devices (much moreso for iPhone 4 and up) with good reviews, so there’s no real surprises.  Still, since the embargo lifted three days before launch, we get some kind of sentiment measuring point against that backdrop of iPhone 5S supply constraint worries and the conspicuous (though again, hardly surprising) lack of pre-order numbers from yesterday.

What’s that?  Tapering?  Forgive me if I didn’t mention it, the SPY is up maybe 2% while AAPL’s down about 10% in the same period.  It’s probably just me, but I’m currently proceeding on the assumption that AAPL’s trading in its own world of sentiment, disconnected from the broader markets at least for now.

All that said, moving onto a quick look at the hourly/daily charts.

Hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-091713close

– AAPL was good for a quick overnight/day trade for those far more nimble at trading than myself.

– Time for Right Shoulder Watch, Part 2?  Personally, I can’t look at today’s action in isolation.  AAPL fell close to 15 points yesterday and reclaimed less than half of that.  While MACD-h is positive, AAPL still has so much to prove to merit a more favorable view of the current, pretty darn miserable chart.

– The Wililams oscillator is hinting at a lack of bullish optimism that we haven’t seen in several weeks.  Oversold readings had led to overbought readings, but not the past few days.

– On a very micro level I guess it’s “good” that AAPL reclaimed transitory support at around 455 from yesterday.  But AAPL did lose some relative strength end-of-day while the indices held most of their intraday gains.

Daily chart:

aapl-daily-091713close

– AAPL did bounce over the 50% Fib retrace level, but without much gusto.

– AAPL failed to reclaim the SMA-200 today, div-adjusted (about 455) or otherwise (around 460).  For what it’s worth, conventional wisdom as I understand it says AAPL shouldn’t get too comfortable under the SMA-200 and most other moving averages if it wants to regain momentum quickly.

– SMA-100 may continue to be a “battleground” for AAPL.  As for that golden cross of the SMA-50 and SMA-200…as you can see, it’s not helping much.

The Trials of Sentiment continue this Friday, and I can’t imagine AAPL would show much relative strength in the event of a market-unfriendly tapering decision (though some pundits are opining the US economic data is still too weak for the Fed to consider much more than a modest reduction of the $85B/month in QE3).  But who knows.  Maybe the reviews could help boost AAPL a bit, to the extent that WS regains confidence that Apple will eventually make enough of these generally well-liked iPhones to satisfy demand.  Maybe AAPL can trend up with the market if tapering is in-line or better than expectations.  We’ll see where we’re at tomorrow.

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