AAPLTalk Late Night, 9/16/13 Market Close: Monday, Monday

The return of the semi-bad semi-puns.  So what was behind today’s bearish action?  Sell the lack of news?  Some butterfly downgrades AAPL (sorry, I mean flaps its wings) in the middle of New York’s Financial District?  Whatever the case, AAPL’s currently in “any excuse” mode.  If it sounds remotely “plausible”, seems you can’t rule it out.

(So maybe I should start holding Apple to increasingly impossible standards.  Call it perma-disappointment.)

Anyway, that First Trial of Sentiment didn’t go so well, as Apple didn’t give out any pre-order numbers.  And it wasn’t terribly likely to happen, considering the lack of pre-ordering (and probably initial supply) for iPhone 5S.

Mark your calendars for Friday the 20th – iPhone launch day – and we’ll revisit the Trials of Sentiment later in the week.

Now for a look at the hourly and daily charts:

Hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-091613close

– Bizarro-world H&S sorta-trigger?  Disconnected bear flag gap down trigger?  Passing through the volatility crush “decision gate” only to fall straight through the floor?  Multiple explanations, all of them illogical-sounding, none of them good on this timeframe.

– Hello, red “master downtrend line” that I didn’t think I’d have to project out.  At this point, couldn’t hurt to keep an eye on it, if only for composure measuring purposes.  As of today, it’s a little over 435.

– At this point, I’m looking more at price action than anything else.  MACD-h doesn’t really tell today’s story, and the Williams oscillator should remain oversold until AAPL finds a way to reverse course.  Now as far as price action, there is that “end on a high note” green hourly candle, which, yes, did have a decent amount of buying volume net-net.  But in my uneducated opinion, it’s tough to call it much of a victory when it represents a bounce from the lowest point of the day.  Well, who knows.

Daily chart:

aapl-daily-091613close

– A correction to yesterday’s first comment on the daily chart.  If this keeps up, it’ll be worse than mid-January 2013.  At least in certain respects.  Before you get on my case for being hysterical (which I’m not, I think), a few facts and an educated guess or two.  The post-earnings gap down from January led to around 80 points of net selloff before AAPL bounced (for a little while, anyway).  As it stands, AAPL is now off 63 points from the intermediate uptrend high, and about 56 points from the most recent “lower high”.  The “excuse” for January was poor earnings.  By comparison, the panic selling from 506 seems…a bit less substantive.  Oh, sure, worries about the future, Apple’s supposed premium pricing itself into irrelevance, analyst downgrades, etc., but that really distills into the classic brew of fear, uncertainty and doubt.  Not a single actual iPhone-related number from Apple to be found aside from price.  But I digress.

– MACD-h is now the lowest it’s been since April 2012.  I have a tinfoil theory or two about what it could mean, but as far as the more objective read, it’s simply saying “whole lotta selling goin’ on” (with apologies to Elvis).  As far as the Williams oscillator, AAPL is now beginning to show embedded oversold behavior – something it hasn’t shown the entire intermediate uptrend.

– Just two “levels” I wanted to point out.  The SMA-100, whether div-adjusted or not, is very close by, but while it was reclaimed in either case, we don’t have any reversal signal as in the 385 and 388 intraday lows in April and late June.  The 61.8% Fib retrace level (aka the “really should hold if this is a standard uptrend level” for those who use this metric) is a little above 435, or roughly 15 points lower than AAPL’s close.

The exaggerated selling seems a little too panicky to last much long longer, but it’s not like AAPL has shown much buoyancy lately.  And AAPL has been methodically filling gaps when it doesn’t create them on the way down…which does make me wonder about the conspicuous gap up from around late July.  Will AAPL be able to “protect” it?  Your guess is at least as good as mine.

Hold on tight.  Whatever direction AAPL’s headed to next, it’s not likely to be a smooth ride.

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