AAPLTalk QuickTake, 9/13/13 Market Close: Is green in AAPL’s future, or just the rest of the market?

In case you haven’t checked the futures yet, the still-very-early read has the indices up about 100 basis points.  Whether it’s largely due to a geopolitical and/or “pan-economic” sigh of relief that things aren’t as bad as feared (we think?) or…something else (Larry Summers withdrawing from consideration as the next Fed? *shrug*), it’s a strong signal of optimism from early market participants.

Ordinarily you might think that this could filter down to names like AAPL.  But as you know, AAPL is in the middle of a huge period of expectations uncertainty – which is appropriate on some level I guess, since Apple’s two proudly announced new iPhones will likely account for about half of Apple’s revenues (and an even bigger share of its earnings).  I can sure take issue with the market’s reaction to its inflated expectations vs. AAPL’s worse-than-pedestrian 11.6 multiple, but maybe another time.

Apple’s now at what you might call “The First Trial of Sentiment” – pre-order numbers, or lack thereof, for iPhone 5C.  If you (were to) ask me (remember, total non-expert here, read the disclaimer and all that), it’s not terribly likely we’ll get numbers on Monday since iPhone 5S isn’t part of the pre-order/reserve-for-in-store-pickup mix at allat least for countries not as lucky as Hong Kong or China starting Sep. 17.  Take a wild guess on how the media will spin that.

Now, if that pre-order number turns out to be close to 2 million on the strength of iPhone 5C alone?  Or if there’s some impressive pre-order number over the whole weekend vs. a 24-hour period?  Maybe Apple will say something.  But no one outside Apple knows, which puts us right back at square one.

While we wait to see if Apple will or won’t provide iPhone pre-order numbers for the first time since 2010 or so (iPhone 4), here’s a quick, low-commentary look at a couple charts.

Hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-091313close

– Left shoulder, 2/3 of a head, micro right shoulder?  Is that “enough”?  Who knows with AAPL.

– Williams oscillator, MACD-h not looking very inspiring for bulls right now.

– Neither is that wacky BB action, with AAPL near the lower BB at the point of yet another potential volatility squeeze.

– iCahn (er, Icahn) rocket fuel is gone, and then some.

– Since I can only read the charts in retrospect, I’m not predicting anything, just noting that my instaneous read of this timeframe is net bearish.  If AAPL’s gonna try some kind of bottoming pattern (say an island bottom), there’s still work to be done and levels to retake.  Obviously, you might disagree.

– Don’t mind the brighter green line from 388, I’m just using it informally for now and it’ll probably be adjusted if not erased soon.

Daily chart:

aapl-daily-091313close

– I sure hope we’re not kinda sorta repeating mid-January 2013.

– 38.2% Fib level will be interesting to watch, as AAPL threatens to break below the “good intermediate uptrend” line.

– Volume back to “normal” – which is to say “low”.

– Oversold or potentially embedded oversold?  I don’t think we’ll get a clear answer for a while with the “Trials of Sentiment” far from over.

– A big “whatever” to the likely SMA-50/SMA-200 golden cross, if you ask me.  I mean, last week’s price action, after all.

– No idea what it means, but this is the second-most-negative MACD-h reading on the daily since mid-November.  I added a reference line on that indicator.

Check your five-point trading harness.  Could be a wild Monday for AAPL, or even the broader markets in general (green futures don’t always mean green session, though my wild guess is it will this time).

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