AAPLTalk Late Night, 9/4/13 Market Close: Jumping the Gun or Preparing for Launch?

Starting from late Tuesday night – first, a story from The Next Web about a standalone Apple event in China with incredibly intriguing implications (read: is Apple announcing a China Mobile partnership next week?).  As I recall, no reaction in early pre-market trading.

As the market open approaches, a ton of other Apple-centric news and rumor sites pick up on the story.  And so does WS, “finally”, bidding up AAPL a hard-to-ignore $10 or so in pre-market.

Around 2.5 hours into Wednesday trading, the well-sourced John Paczkowski from AllThingsD weighs in with some very helpful context. The prospect of a China Mobile announcement seems a bit less likely on a second read.  Which cools down the enthusiasm of Apple/AAPL enthusiasts (including myself) somewhat as the prior-posted news items update across the Web.

But AAPL?  AAPL doesn’t cool off much at all.

Starting with the 15-min chart:

aapl-15min-090413close

– After about a week of fitful, not-very-reassuring price action in the 486-495 zone, more or less, AAPL kicked off trading at 499.56 and, to my untrained eyes, held up quite well the whole day.  (A bit more on that later.)

– AAPL couldn’t hold 500, but it didn’t breach 496 either.  In fact, it finished the final 30 minutes pretty strongly as seen by the “empty” green candles.  Long story short – AAPL was off only 80 cents from the open, and it held the vast majority of the gap up, which might lessen the significance of the initial overheated trading.

– Interestingly, AAPL put in somewhat similar-looking MACD-h readings as yesterday (obviously better today), and yet AAPL itself was in fine shape end of day, despite MACD-h being negative.  Unlike yesterday, the Williams oscillator bounced strongly from the oversold zone, making its way towards oversold when the market closed.

– A potentially useful micro composure trendline may have become more evident today (gold line currently between the “top third” and top base uptrend trendlines), which AAPL is currently trading above.

– Speaking of trendlines, AAPL levitated over the “top third” trendline all day, attempted to break out of the top base trendline, and remained solidly in the upper half of the parallel channel (see square)- somewhere AAPL hasn’t been for about a week.  Considering that AAPL has traded as if it was in a higher or lower gear within that channel thus far (there hasn’t been much price indecision around mid-channel), it could be worth noting.

Overall, a very good day on the micro timeframe, and definitely worth paying attention to in my opinion.  Moving to the hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-090413close

– The hourly chart provides a better visual of the the last three trading days.  On Aug. 30, AAPL “loses” the gold reference trendline and looks to bear flag.  On Sep. 3, the next trading day, AAPL attempts a gap up (breaking above the gold trendline) but can’t hold on, with the media invite not doing anything to keep AAPL from sliding to a lethargic, if higher high, close.  On Sep. 4 (which I’ll call “Day 3”), AAPL gaps up once again, more powerfully than last time, but holds higher.  In fact, AAPL puts in a very nice hammer (almost a dragonfly doji) in the final hour, recouping most of the intraday “losses” and ending up more or less where it started at the open.

– Hopefully the three green arrows and the “top third” trendline provide some sense of the potentially bullish change in composure.

– AAPL is now in Day 2 of positive MACD-h territory (not seen since Mid-August) and the Williams oscillator is showing the first signs of sustained power.

To finish up with the daily chart, as usual:

aapl-daily-090413close

– Note the two circles – maybe they’re worth comparing and watching, maybe not.  There’s a rough similarity in price action, though there’s also a tremendous difference in composure between the two time periods.  After all, AAPL’s very much in uptrend now.  AAPL not falling off a cliff in the next few trading sessions would be very helpful in further differentiating the two sets of candles.

– As mentioned yesterday, AAPL may be turning the technical corner at a good time – holding the upper price channel quite nicely and showing preliminary signs of “bottoming” as far as the MACD-h and oversold-condition technicals.  Granted, today was a doji-esque candle and MACD-h isn’t yet positive, but I’ll go Out on a Limb™ and say that sometimes, looking to different timeframes (such as the 15-min and hourly) may give a better, more complete picture than simply reading the daily candle and micro-timeframe downtrend reading in isolation.

– By the way, if this turns out to have been AAPL’s “bounce” from the 23.6% Fib retrace – which it really more of approached than actually reached (see Fib grid) – that could have very, very bullish implications, at least short-to-intermediate-term.  Of course, we’ll have to wait for confirmation.

– Hey, AAPL’s back over the EMA-8 (493ish)!  And the lower daily BB continues its rapid climb, now very close to 460.

– AAPL bulls aren’t fans of upside price gaps, given AAPL’s relentless backfill on the way down to the 380s.  On the other hand, that gap from the high 390s back on Jul. 1 is in no danger whatsoever, there’s unfilled gaps below the 380s, and AAPL is only about six weeks removed from having definitively broken a truly brutal multi-month downtrend.

Overall – what a difference a day makes!  Your humble correspondent and pretty-lousy trader couldn’t resist placing a bullish bet today (after checking the ol’ antacid supplies).  Did I jump the gun, or get a half-decent buy price considering that AAPL gave virtually no chance for Tuesday non-longs to react?  Time will tell.

With all of the big things that happened in tech this week, it’s only fitting that Thursday promises to be another exciting market session, particularly for bulls.  Best of luck tomorrow.

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