AAPLTalk Late Night, 9/4/13 Market Close: Jumping the Gun or Preparing for Launch?

Starting from late Tuesday night – first, a story from The Next Web about a standalone Apple event in China with incredibly intriguing implications (read: is Apple announcing a China Mobile partnership next week?).  As I recall, no reaction in early pre-market trading.

As the market open approaches, a ton of other Apple-centric news and rumor sites pick up on the story.  And so does WS, “finally”, bidding up AAPL a hard-to-ignore $10 or so in pre-market.

Around 2.5 hours into Wednesday trading, the well-sourced John Paczkowski from AllThingsD weighs in with some very helpful context. The prospect of a China Mobile announcement seems a bit less likely on a second read.  Which cools down the enthusiasm of Apple/AAPL enthusiasts (including myself) somewhat as the prior-posted news items update across the Web.

But AAPL?  AAPL doesn’t cool off much at all.

Starting with the 15-min chart:

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“Hey, heard about the latest Apple media invite to the iPhone event? No, not that one, the other one.”

UPDATE:  AllThingsD/WSJ provides some perspective.  Appears it’ll be more like a satellite event.  Still uncommon for China, but the clarity from Paczkowski, who’s really tuned in to Apple intel, is very helpful in putting things in proper context.  http://allthingsd.com/20130904/apple-will-hold-satellite-iphone-events-in-beijing-berlin-and-tokyo/?mod=tweet&source=email_rt_mc_body&app=n

A good solid story might’ve just gotten even better.

Not far behind the Cupertino Town Hall intro of what pretty much has to be the new iPhones is an event in Beijing according to several Apple news sources.

That’s right, a separate iPhone event.

In China.

With the same invite design (just in Chinese).

Less than a day after the Cupertino event.

Something Apple has never done before.

In a country where certification procedures usually prevent Apple from selling iPhones for at least several weeks after they first go on sale elsewhere in the world.

In a country where Apple already has a carrier relationship with China Telecom and China Unicom and apparently never felt the need to have any events remotely like the one being reported on.

In a country where a certain supermassive carrier almost entirely without LTE and without any support for iPhones in its proprietary TD-SCDMA network solution somehow has 15M unsupported iPhones presumably suffering with painfully slow 2.5G EDGE data as of March 2012.

In a year where Apple is poised to make some of the boldest moves yet in the “lower-cost” smartphone space.

The only sure thing is that there are no sure things, but in business generally, as with technicals, some setups look a lot more compelling than others.