AAPLTalk Late Night, 9/3/13 Market Close: A Convictionless Tape

Well, that gap up sure didn’t last long.

So where does “sell the (announcement before the) news” leave us?

Pretty much still in limbo, it would seem, but maybe the charts say otherwise?  Let’s start with the 15-minute chart:

aapl-15min-090313close

– AAPL tried to make a run at “mid-channel” of the bright green parallel channel.  And failed.  I’m more inclined to read that as bearish since the gap up couldn’t be sustained.  Granted, the broader markets had similar fading-type price action not long after the open, but many tech stocks did hang in there better than AAPL.

– AAPL’s retesting the “good composure” top-third sub-trendline of the base uptrend channel with more intensity than last Friday.  It hasn’t been “lost” yet but the pressure is definitely there.

– The parallel channel is still holding, and AAPL did make another higher low, but nothing all that bullish jumps out at me just yet.

Onto the hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-090313close

– What’s that, MACD-h went positive?  And it’s still there?  Didn’t feel like it a few hours into the session.

– Is AAPL testing oversold territory on the Williams Oscillator with MACD-h will positive a good sign for bulls?  Might I have missed at least some trade-able bounce?  We’ll see in a couple days, I’d imagine.

Finally, the daily chart for the more intermediate-timeframe picture.

aapl-daily-090313close

(Apologies on that parallel channel not showing up at this zoom level for some reason, but you know where it is based on the 15-min and hourly charts.)

– Haven’t had a filled green-type (as in waning intraday momentum-type) candle in a few days, and really not much at all this entire intermediate uptrend, except for July 22 and that inverted hammer on Aug. 21 or so.  Not sure what it means, but I’m definitely keeping an eye on that.  I’m pretty sure I don’t want to see too many more of those “failed rally” candles in a short span of time, at least if AAPL is showing relative weakness against tech/the broader markets.

– Selling pressure did ease up a bit at the close, and AAPL is still hanging around the EMA-21 and SMA-20 for now, though there’s no TSLA-style power bounce in sight.

– The Williams oscillator looks interesting on the daily timeframe, showing AAPL in oversold territory (not seen since around late June), but with AAPL still within “healthy consolidation on the intermediate timeframe” territory.  If AAPL can resist an embedded oversold condition this time around, the technicals are lining up pretty decently, provided AAPL eventually starts showing some bullish energy.  Of course, the media invite provided exactly none of that.

– It would be interesting to see the “top third” sub-trendline become a relevant “support line” again – as you can see, it was a pretty decent reference line for some time in late June to mid-July.  But since AAPL seems to be dragging its feet more than bouncing lately, I’m not that optimistic at this point.  Still, I’m trying to resist predictions without any clear signs, and there aren’t any that seem that obvious to me.  Do keep in mind my disclaimer of any market expertise, as usual.

On the product/fundamentals side of things, what we can gather from the latest Apple rumor intel seems promising.  Technicals just aren’t showing any pressing need to buy just yet though, at least for those who trade shorter-term timeframes.  The market still feels unpredictable, and AAPL is definitely not in momo mode at the present.  Let’s see what Wednesday has in store.

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