First, the “bad news” from Friday. Then, some quick thoughts about the positive market sentiment that may spill over into Tuesday.
Things didn’t look so great for AAPL a few days back. The 15-min showed weakness:
– AAPL looked to be forming another micro timeframe bear flag.
– At the end of trading AAPL started breaking below the “top third” trendline of the base uptrend channel (darker green lines). The sub-trendline seemed quite useful as a composure indicator not too long ago.
– True, AAPL was making “higher lows”, but in my opinion, without any “enthusiasm”.
– If anything, the BBs were hinting at more downside, considering the volatility squeeze and AAPL briefly trading below the lower BB.
– While AAPL was staying within the brighter green parallel channel, it just looked heavy and lacking in bullish momentum. Depending on your perspective you might have called Friday the worst or second worst day AAPL had within the parallel channel.
As for the hourly chart:
– Nope, not a whole lot better. The MACD-h was somewhat “hopeful”, being negative but rising and only shallowly in the minus zone.
– Then again, the hourly BBs seemed to tell much the same story as the 15-minute BBs. So even if you assumed bears weren’t making much headway based on holding above 485 and the positive slope of the MACD-h, it looked like the ball was back in their court.
– The Williams oscillator (just like the 15-min version) showed AAPL failing to get back into overbought territory on the latest bounce, which hadn’t happened all month.
– Instead of controlled, very bullish consolidation leading to a move higher in mid-August, the Aug 28-31 price action looked more like a shrugging of the shoulders, so to speak. A warning sign well worth keeping an eye on, though that’s just my take.
As for the daily chart:
– No big surprises, though the solid red candle showed the continuing danger of “upside-down” green candles, particularly those of the trend top variety.
– MACD-h was falling lower on a trajectory similar to mid-April, which, while influenced by that ugly red candle on Aug. 27, was undeniably a micro bearish sign.
– While AAPL was sticking around the 485-490 price band, the fact that AAPL was challenging 515 less than 10 sessions ago was worthy of note for shorter-timeframe bulls looking to adjust.
Which brings us to today, Monday evening. The market seems to be “pricing in” a less volatile situation as far as Syria, as reflected by the S&P futures being up near 100 basis points, and the NASDAQ-100 up around 110 basis points as of about 11PM Eastern. We’ve also got several leaked photos of the alleged iPhone 5C, which I’d bet many in WS are focusing on more than the considerably-more-new iPhone 5S. And as a potential extra boost, Apple’s official media invites are anticipated to be headed to select media e-mail inboxes in about a day or so. Personally, I don’t see how a media invite that’s already “expected” by many would influence AAPL much. But given the green futures, I’ll just put my opinions aside as best I can and see how AAPL reacts tomorrow.
Hope everyone had a good Labor Day Weekend/trading holiday, and see you on the trading floor tomorrow for what should be a lively early session.