Off and running, dashing through the
snow charts with another QuickTake:
– Geopolitical instability. Not exactly out of left field, but the market decided to fixate on it and hit the panic button today, call it a tipping point or just another day of trying to navigate these crazy markets. As is often the case, AAPL gets thrown out with the bathwater.
– Well at least Groundhog Day’s over (that was sarcastic). AAPL lost 500 and it was all downhill from there. So in a way it was similar to yesterday, except day traders or bears armed with puts (or lots and lots of shares sold short) had a really nice opportunity for a limited time.
– Is that a channel, and a parallel channel at that (brighter green lines)? Not a small one, but it’s looking like it! However, it’s already in danger of failing.
– New potential change in composure – accelerated trendline I was tracking was lost, I re-colored it purple. AAPL is also back within the base price channel I was tracking – second dark green line represents the “top third” of the price channel, more or less.
– Yup, it wasn’t pretty for AAPL bulls. Another look at the parallel, slightly descending channel, which may have been confirmed (or, put in play as a legitimate composure-measuring price channel) just today.
– Follow up from yesterday – AAPL now micro oversold on Williams oscillator – clearly, it didn’t matter, as the micro trend is now DOWN.
– AAPL’s price history is almost chameleon-like – here we are again with yet another possible measurement.
– Had price action not been so steep to the downside, or if this was a longer-timeframe chart – you might think this was still very constructive, bullish action.
– Personally, I think it is (but only as of market close, with the intermediate bullish consolidation/descending (parallel) channel already in danger of breakdown).
– A matter of perspective – AAPL has yet to reach the “really, really strong” 23.6% retrace of the 388-513ish uptrend (see Fib grid overlay).
– This is NOT to say that the intermediate trend is still sunshine and roses. Yes, in the long term this could be healthy given AAPL continues its upward action. Today was a day to take notice, however – a brutal, relentless selling day. The base uptrend channel isn’t in immediate danger, but it’s important to note that AAPL went from hovering above all trendlines and averages (Monday) to crashing through 500, the EMA-8, the accelerated trendline and the base price channel upper trendline in a single day.
– EMA-8 now 496ish and looking to curve lower. Lower daily BB at 443ish. EMA-21/SMA-20/”top third trendline” converging near the same area- potentially a “triple confluence point” worth watching. All three will be around 485 to boot – with 485 being an important micro level as the lower bound of the 485-505 airspace and being close to 50% Fib retrace of 454ish-513ish sub-uptrend. So that’s a quintuple confluence region? Well then, I’ll just go Out on a Limb™ and say it’s a VERY important micro area to watch (and for AAPL to hold to try and regain micro momentum, which per my WAG seems unlikely as of market close).
A wild trading session Wednesday seems almost guaranteed, considering Tuesday’s market mayhem. Good luck.