AAPLTalk, 8/22/13 Market Close: Does Today Even Count?

Well yes, of course it does, sorta.  😀  But no question it was a strange trading day.

There’s already a well-known despot who’s quite popular with various YouTube memes griping about it.  (You know the one, that “Downfall” scene that never seems to get old.)

Since AAPL and the entire NASDAQ didn’t trade for half the day, we only have about half a day’s worth of data to go over.  Anything useful?  Well, let’s do a quick chart check, starting with the 15-min as we often do:


Bearing in mind that this was a bizarre semi-trading day…there might be some useful info here.  Note AAPL facing two BB volatility squeezes, each time trading at the low end, which would normally hint at resolution to the downside.  That first time when AAPL was trading around 510, AAPL followed the “expected” pattern.  These past two decision gates – nope!

AAPL stubbornly held the blue potential H&S neckline, though it did dip into the 497-498ish support zone before the lights went out at the NASDAQ.

I’m starting to wonder if a “descending channel-type” theory may actually have some kind of validity after all.  Maybe more like a wedge-type pattern given the price action, but still.  It’ll be interesting if AAPL has a controlled descent (hallmark of the descending channel or other varieties of bullish continuation, if I remember correctly), because that would put the H&S and bear flag theories into doubt.  But that might actually be premature, because AAPL ended the day marginally up.

It’ll be interesting to see if the micro-uptrend AAPL is in per this particular timeframe (MACD-h went positive) precedes a bit more upside or price stability.

Of course at day’s end, AAPL is still “stuck” between 500-505.  Waiting on something to happen, but in the meantime – it’s probably just me – the longer AAPL hangs around the 500-ish zone, the more constructive the price action looks like a net bull flag, absent some other overriding trouble signs.

Looking at the hourly chart:


By the way, my current thought process is to post more than one chart if it looks like the additional chart has something to add to the discussion.  In this case, the hourly fits the bill.  Things got a little rocky, but whether you credit another Icahn tweet (I don’t, but that’s just me) or some overall market enthusiasm over decent China/Germany/Euro zone PMI numbers, AAPL still held up, and the MACD-h is trying to head positive once again as the Williams oscillator is bouncing from its oversold reading.  It is just one candle, but the potency of the last hour’s trading is worth paying attention to if nothing else.  Considering AAPL looks to be entering another volatility squeeze/decision gate on this timeframe, the candle was potent enough to bring AAPL back into mid-channel-ish BB territory.

The hourly chart also gives a better view of the light green accelerated trendline I was tracking some time ago rising to meet AAPL.  It’ll be interesting to see if AAPL stays above or trades under that trendline in the days ahead.

Wrapping up with the daily chart:


Overall, looks constructive.  The bull flag still looks pretty darn nice, considering!  Today’s candle, a hammer or almost-hammer, is a nice change from the inverted hammer from yesterday.  True, the MACD-h is still falling off, but considering that AAPL is net down and not doing much since the Monday close, nothing too worrisome in my book.  AAPL remains persistent at the upper border of the 485-505 airspace, and the trendlines and moving averages continue to move upward to provide potential price support, with the EMA-8 now being about 496ish.  Some ways below AAPL’s current price point, the lower BB continues upward, now a bit over 430, which is also helpful (though no AAPL bull wants to see a retest of anywhere near 430).

AAPL still can’t seem to “make up its mind” about where to go next, but looking at it from a little farther back, composure remains great.  It’s just the more impatient/shorter-term traders like me who’re getting frustrated (there’s no clear setup quite yet – and even though it looks to be good so far, 705 >> 388 just makes it hard to trust AAPL at upper levels without (even) clearer bullish signals than consolidation).  Weekly call holders, you have my sympathy, and my hopes that you’ll get some kind of recompense (however unlikely that may be).  See you on the trading floor tomorrow!

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