AAPLTalk, 8/21/13: AAPL Toes the Tightrope Amidst the Bull and Bear Tug-of-War

First off, as I warn all the time, I make no claim of expertise.

As seen by AAPL not going micro bearish just yet.  So I’m “pleased” to tell you my Out on a Limb™ market call for AAPL today was wrong.  (Who likes to be wrong?)

So where are we now?  Things just got even more tense than they were yesterday, it seems!

Starting with the 15-min chart:


So have we gone from a head and shoulders to a head and two or three shoulders on both sides?  I don’t even know.  Anyway, since AAPL did hold the line today, I decided to adjust my light blue neckline in a way that made the most sense to me; obviously your interpretation may easily be both different and better.

But it’s hard to disagree, if I may be so bold, to say that AAPL held the line today.  Today’s action was thrashy, but AAPL did not make a lower low, the intraday low being a couple of dimes above yesterday’s.  Amusingly, as was a possibility (as it is every trading session of course), AAPL actually started the day with a BB resolution to the upside, contrary to my take yesterday.  It didn’t really get anywhere, and we look to have a new price “decision gate” at market close which AAPL isn’t on the best side of, but I just can’t call AAPL out for the short-term just yet.  If you’re an AAPL bull, or one at heart as I am, I did find it interesting that the “extrapolated descending channel” is back in play today.  Even though in my opinion (for what little it’s worth), the two best reads of the micro action are between H&S-looking thing and continued consolidation.  The micro bear flag theory is still out there but honestly, it seems interchangeable with the H&S theory the more I think about it.  Anyway, it’s an absolute nail-biter as we wait to see what AAPL does between 500-505.  Your guess on what AAPL does next is as good as anyone’s.

On to the hourly chart:


A few observations that seem different from the 15-minute timeframe.  AAPL isn’t trading “ideally” within the BBs at slightly below mid-channel, but it’s still hanging relatively tough.  The MACD-h is attempting to reverse into positive territory, and despite some oversold readings on the Williams oscillator, AAPL is actually net price static, which might (or might not, but I think it might) bode well for AAPL if it can re-gather momentum.  But the overall “wait-and-see” impression is pretty much the same from this timeframe too.

Real quickly, it’s interesting to see how my light blue crayon line will eventually cross over the 505 upper airspace barrier.  I’d expect to see some micro resolution before too long.

Finally, a quick look at the daily chart:


Not an inspiring up day, that’s for sure.  And that inverted hammer-looking thing is kinda worrisome.  But, big surprise considering the up day, AAPL remains over all upper trendlines and moving averages, which themselves are all above or will soon be above the “damn strong uptrend” 23.8% Fibonnaci retrace level of 484ish.

So those less concerned with active trading may well not care much about the last 2-3 days’ action.

As for me, hand me the antacids (ah, the life of more active traders) and see you on the virtual trading floor for a very unpredictable Thursday trading session.  Amidst tapering uncertainty, it’s little surprise that market anxiety is far from, well, tapering.  Let’s see, I can take four of these antacids at a time, every 6 hours or so?  Good to know.***

***I am not a doctor and don’t play one on TV or new media.  I don’t prescribe over-the-counter antacids, and come to think of it who does?  Read all important labels, and never forget my claim of NO expertise.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s