AAPLTalk Late Night, 8/19/13 Market Close: Green Day, Potential Micro Weakness

Sometimes the post titles just get down to business.

Today I have FOUR charts (sigh). So we’ll try to pick up the pace a bit today.

First, the 15-min chart.


Great initial breakout with power from the kinda-bullish-pennant/triangle thingy. So things looked to be off to a great start. It looked like an awesome bull flag, it walked like an awesome bull flag (ok, so bull flags don’t walk), it talked like an awesome bull flag (just…go with it, OK? :D), until it didn’t.

You might think, as I occasionally still do, that this, I dunno, “Capt. Obvious” sounding language doesn’t say much. Well, duh, it already happened, we can all see that, please excuse me while I delete my bookmark or RSS subscription. (I hope you reconsider!) But that’s the market for you sometimes. It just changes on a dime, like the weather. And for shorter-timeframe traders like myself, I dare say (at the risk of being horribly wrong) that having more of a “droll”, Capt. Obvious, OK-this-happened-onto-the-next-adjustment-or-measurement-phase attitude (which you might even call a form of “even keel”) is helpful, even if it doesn’t make a lot of sense to casual observers.

So what now? I’ve been telling you for dozens of posts now, I don’t have a crystal ball! And the last thing I want to do is to pretend I have anything of value – I just gots my charts! But under the “just for fun” exception, which I use…well…every single post? 😀 Looks like 507-ish is a critical point for AAPL to hold, and beyond that, the 505 “airspace upper barrier” and the gap from 504. Yes, AAPL visited 504, but that was some days ago, so most traders, as far as I know, still call this a price gap. One to be protected or backfilled or broken below. As always, the only way to know what’ll happen is to see it happen.

If it all sounds like I’m currently leaning micro bearish if I had to make a call…I am. But I don’t at all mean to imply that a rejection of new trend highs, 6 bucks off a 120+ or so point move is the end of the world. I just happen to be a active/swing trader as of right now, so micro timeframes (for example, a day to a week) are more of my personal focus. Yours may differ.

I also have that yellow line/circled region “for fun”. Why? To watch for a potential head and shoulders formation. For now, there’s a left shoulder and a failure to hold the highest highs at market close. We’ll see what develops.

Zooming in to the 3-min timeframe:


A closer look at the day’s action. For bulls seeking ever higher prices, the price action itself said…not today. Hold the line, break below and then above, gap up from 507 and don’t look back, any number of possible outcomes…who knows what we’ll get. For now we have what we have and that’s how it’ll always be.

That SMA-200 contact on the 3-min, for whatever it’s worth for such a short timeframe, looks interesting, doesn’t it. Call it confluence.

Going to the hourly timeframe:

That last bar wasn’t pretty, was it. Unfortunately it also had the effect of pushing MACD-h into negative territory, a glimpse of hope for bears in a manner not terribly unlike that MACD-h reversal into positive territory from a certain chart not long back (but in “reverse”). For “fun” I’ve brought back a semi-clone of the descending channel from a few sessions back as one way for _me_ to track downside composure. Note the emphasis on myself. Never mind my ego trip, heh, just to hammer home the point that my kindergarten charts and thought processes are my own, do your own due diligence, etc. I know, I know, sorry that I don’t see about that broken record. I like it for some reason. 😀

And then the daily chart to wrap up, as I often like to do:


Everything looks more than bullish for now on a more intermediate timeframe, except for a not particularly bullish green candle that got stopped short of a potentially important 515 level. AAPL was still up a bunch for the day; it again showed great relative strength; it’s still flying over the EMA-8 and the two trendlines I’m tracking (the EMA-8 is now into the 490s and likely to continue climbing, which seems helpful from a support standpoint); it’s still showing strong, strong composure at the top of the daily upper BB.

I just feel short-term cautious for some reason since AAPL didn’t have that “closing power” we’ve been spoiled by lately. It might be nothing. And I might have “misread” AAPL (ah, the semi-useless power of hindsight) for the zillionth time. But overall, AAPL seems fine for the moment, it just showed a small sign of something different this uptrend.

See you on the virtual trading floor at Tuesday open.

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