AAPLTalk, 8/15/13 Market Close: The Bulls Press Their Case in the 485-505 Airspace

I wonder when I’ll stop with the bad half-pun post titles that sometimes rhyme. 😀

So, how about that 489 intraday low?  Did…anyone actually _see_ it?  I checked Yahoo! Finance, Google Finance, my trading platform, the program I use to generate charts, and only StockCharts(.com) shows any evidence of the mystery print…but I don’t have access to the micro timeframe data to see when the trade happened.

From what I can gather, 489 happened so quickly as to not matter, but I’ll get into that to when I go over the daily chart.

First, the more micro intraday look (15-min chart)

aapl-15min-081513close

In my humble opinion, the 15-min chart currently reads:  “What, bulls worry?”  (Sorry, not sure where the 515 and 505 lines are in this one, but it’s easy enough for you to see where they should be.)  For now, there’s a really, really clean potential pennant formation, which in uptrends hints at continuation.  MACD-h didn’t go positive, but AAPL hardly went negative, and not counting the mystery 489 print, AAPL appears to have made micro higher lows just short of 494.

It’s not all sunshine and roses for bulls of course.  MACD-h remains negative.  The last volatility squeeze/”decision gate” on the afternoon of Aug. 14 resolved to the downside, briefly.  And as another “decision gate” looms as of the end of today’s trading, AAPL is below this micro mid-channel, which is less than ideal.

Still, there’s really no real danger signs from the prior two days’ trading.  Of course, the only way to know what happens in the next few days is to let the next few days of trading happen.

Will AAPL break above or below the potential pennant and nearby upside/downside levels?  To me as a somewhat active trader, that’s the most important question – one that isn’t answerable by opinions, but actual price targets and formation confirmation/rejection.  If I’m lucky, I’ll gain some small “market edge” by trading based on “what the market tells you (or actually does)” rather than what you think the market “should” do.  Of course, I never said I was anywhere near perfect. 😀

Since I’m digressing, onto the hourly.  You’re not expecting any surprises, are you?

aapl-hourly-081513close

You’re mostly correct!  The potential bullish pennant, which thousands of other AAPL traders must be looking over today, still looks fine.  Now, MACD-h is going negative, which is worth watching.  On the other hand, AAPL is clearly holding the upper level of the 485-505 airspace very well (and also hovering decently over the BB mid-channel), particularly given the hyper-momo conditions that brought AAPL to this point.  That potential bull flag looks to be flying strong until we see otherwise.

Onto the surprise.  What’s with those cloned-looking purple lines?  I did that to simulate a descending channel similar to the multi-day consolidation that never decisively broke down and resulted in a breakout Aug. 12.  You may see it differently, but the descending channel was of such a velocity that I was skeptical of a micro breakout unless AAPL made an upward move in short order.  So, I decided to “superimpose” a rough approximation of the channel over the present uptrend as a way of “pacing it” in the event of some retrace.  Don’t be surprised if I make some adjustments to the hypothetical channel in the days ahead.

Last but not least, the daily chart.

aapl-daily-081513close

Volume’s drying up some as the Icahn/other big name investors hype fades a bit into the background, but the main thing for bulls is that price support really isn’t.  Down less than 60 cents on a real downer of a broader market session?  Yep, just another day of relative strength.  Remember when?  Nothing else in terms of technicals or levels really jumps out at me.  Still just waiting for something to happen in either direction during a pause in the uptrend.

And yes, that’s me that messed with today’s daily candle by adding an extension down to around 489.  Assuming that some tiny yet meaningful slice of trading occurred at 489?  Well…no evening star formation, not even close.

Hopefully I can keep the word count, maybe even chart count down a bit tomorrow.  This stuff takes work! 😀  Anyway, see you on the trading floor tomorrow!  Crossing my fingers that my short trades (not in AAPL) don’t put me back at square one.  Or worse.

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