What a day. AAPL was actually already doing quite nicely, and seemed to have more than enough momentum to close around 475, and safely over the non-div-adjusted SMA-200 at around 470. Considering that’s the “final” moving average hurdle on the daily timeframe, that would’ve been a big deal on its own.
Then in the afternoon trading session, a certain corporate raider/multibillionaire investor issues a couple of tweets, and this happens:
From looking really promising and toeing the accelerated trendline. And suddenly, over the price channel, over the accelerated trend, over most anyone’s expectations for the day, maybe even the entire week?
…you could say that.
As I never get tired of repeating (to the five of you loyal, awesome, frequent visitors who have to keep reading/skipping over the disclaimers, I apologize), I’m nowhere close to an investment newsletter, so I have no special insights whatsoever, or even “regular” ones. But I do have charts! 😀
Zooming out to the daily, which I made a little bigger than normal to show a wider timeframe, we appear to be currently admist a very important “action” area (horizontal white lines) which maybe shouldn’t even be called an action area – it’s been airspace since the January earnings gap. We’ll call it 485-505 to be conservative. 485ish was a point of “catastrophic” resistance for AAPL at the height of the mid-Feb countertrend rally attempt. And 505ish, while the intraday low right before the earnings announcement, makes some good sense (just my opinion) given two handy points of reference on Dec. 14 and Dec. 27 (the last times AAPL bounced off 505ish as support).
With Carl Icahn as a new AAPL shareholder and presumed supporter of the company for the time being (I’ll save the commentary on the “dangers” of having him own a given company’s stock for others), will AAPL’s newly supercharged sentiment allow it to make still more progress? Who knows! But I suspect that given a huge move like today’s, much higher volatility is to be expected and prepared for (again, just my opinion).
I have even less to add than usual as far as my humble take on price levels (the weekly SMA-50/SMA-100 may now be in play as further shows of AAPL’s improving composure, 475/480/485 and the trendlines still seem pretty important to me). But I can’t resist pointing out that blue line. Why do I have it? What’s it maybe-connect to?
Yup, you might think of this as a “master uptrend line” of sorts, at least on a 4-5 year timeframe. Several of you probably already have some version of this trendline. AAPL tested it twice from what I can tell, and came close at least once or twice, which to me is just enough to establish it as a potentially useful macro reference. AAPL’s price action had always struck me as awfully linear since the 2009 recovery (and the trendline literally makes much more sense than a logarithmic trendline to my untrained eyes).
Anyway, then the 2012 acceleration and protracted 2012-13 correction put that line out of play, but it may regain relevance in the weeks or months ahead. 560 or so by January? Seems like a tall order, but with new sentiment on AAPL bulls’ side, I’m not ruling anything out.
I’m also not ruling out the possibility of exaggerated two-way action, given the higher volatility conditions AAPL now finds itself in. Since 388 it’s been mostly upside, but I’ll do my best to stay alert and be as nimble as possible. Congratulations to all the AAPL longs today, and I’ll see everyone on the trading floor Wednesday!