AAPLTalk Weekend: Random Thoughts and Micro Levels for This Week (Trading Week Starting Aug. 12)

With the new iPhone media event…probably scheduled for Sep. 10 (myself, I always wait for Jim Dalrymple’s “yep” before declaring things 100% official), Monday just got more interesting for bulls and potentially more interesting for bears in terms of upside risk.

But first, your humble correspondent’s take on recent price action and potentially important levels.  Bearing in mind my disclaimer of any expertise and that any price levels you may have could easily disagree with mine, let’s go to the 15-minute chart (note the purple sorta-trendlines).

aapl-15min-080913close

When I took a little extra time to check out the shorter timeframes post-Friday close, I realized that the descending channel/bull flag thesis actually isn’t quite as down and out as I thought it was.  Maybe it’s just me, but it looks like AAPL is somewhere on the border of barely hanging on to a potential bull flag/descending channel/consolidation pattern and breaking ever-so-slightly below.  Since I tried to use the least sharply angled lower trendline possible that still made sense (to give AAPL the least benefit of the doubt), my rusty 2 cents is that AAPL is on the verge of invalidating a bullish consolidation thesis.  Should AAPL break below the lower purple trendline, particularly in conjunction with losing 450, that seems micro bearish to me.  Conversely, a break above the upper purple trendline (call it just under 456 at the end of Monday trading) could be micro bullish or even a potential bull flag triggering signal.  But again, that’s just me.  Price always tells the story, it’s a darn shame it’s only so clear in retrospect.

Since I have no idea how the combination of favorable-ish Int’l Trade Commission decision, unfavorable e-book-gate decision, and probable-confirmation of Sep. 10 iPhone event will shake out sentiment-wise in Monday’s trading, I’ll try my best to stick to the basics and monitor price levels.  Looking again at Friday’s hourly chart:

aapl-hourly-080913close

454 seems like a pretty obvious micro support level and a great place for AAPL to bounce from; 448-450ish seems more of a key support zone than ever because of the unexpected “good news” about new iPhones over the weekend (which, among other things allows WS (analysts, at least) to price in the possibility of new iPhone sales benefiting fiscal Q4).  448ish is also the 61.8% retrace of the post-earnings move (non-div-adjusted); technicians and Elliotticians alike may well follow that level with interest, since Fibs 101 as I understand it says a bullish stock should hold the 61.8% level on any given retrace.  Below that, there’s a big action area around 434-444, with 434 being the low point of AAPL’s post-earnings gap.  Note also confluence with the orange controlling downtrend line, which looks to be sloping down from 444ish to 440ish next week.  AAPL just spent months fighting its way out from under there; no AAPL bull (including me) wants to see a retest.

Looking above, bulls would like it if AAPL retook the EMA-8, which is something like 456ish or 458ish depending on div-adjusting.  Staying above 460 would also be nice, though the market will probably focus more on the very recent action area from 462-466ish.  The SMA-200 will likely be in play around that area, and after that, there’s the action area from 468ish to just short of 472, where AAPL was finally met with some resistance.

Maybe the rest of the market’s looking boring, but AAPL?  With everything going on and so many nearby levels, I doubt it.  As always, good luck this week!

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