AAPLTalk, 8/9/13: Singing the Ex-Dividend Blues

It’s just one bad kinda-pun after another here, isn’t it. 😀

First, some quick, hopefully objective perspective on the week that was – no, AAPL isn’t micro-doomed, but yes, it’s not exactly a model of bullish consolidation either, having recorded four red days in a row.  It’s only my uneducated opinion, but the overall week-end scorecard to me is – AAPL uptrend intact, near-term skepticism far from unwarranted (or, very much warranted, depending on your perspective).  Trading advice?  Nope, you won’t find any here.  But if you’re really curious, I’m convictionless (no plans for testing either longs or hedges) at this intersection of uptrend rally pause, ex-div, weekly OpEx, and monthly OpEx just around the corner.  AH is indicating that the “good news” for Apple on Samsung is being balanced out by the “bad news” in e-book-gate.  So, for me, it’s back to charting levels and following trendlines as best I can.

Onto the daily chart:


First the “good news”.  The uptrend is still intact.  AAPL hasn’t retraced 23.6% of the move from 388, and it also hasn’t retraced 61.8% of the move from 434 (post-earnings low).  AAPL’s still within the uptrend price channel.

Now the not-so-good news.  AAPL’s definitely got some micro bearish momentum going, posting most of the week-to-week losses in one day’s trading – a fairly straightforward filled red candle.  AAPL closed below the EMA-8, a first since earnings whether div-adjusting or not.  Calling the last four red days part of a bull flag is unrealistic at present, unless you’re looking at things from a weekly perspective.  MACD-h continues to dip towards the zero level, which it hasn’t seen in over a month.  And now AAPL is “mid-channel” within that price channel I’ve been following – a region AAPL hasn’t seen much since July.

AAPL’s testing micro support at 454ish (shows up better on the hourly), and note the top of AAPL’s last rally from late April to early May (circled region).  May be a very useful micro composure comparison as AAPL tests the 454ish level of support and hovers quite close to 450.

Moving to the hourly chart, you get a better look at the light blue 454ish and 450 support levels.  On a more micro level, AAPL’s been in downtrend since around Aug. 6 according to the MACD-h readings.  Another potential micro bear flag may be forming.


All in all, mixed signals coming from AAPL this week (that might be a little too optimistic an assessment on very short timeframes, actually), and if I had to make a call one way or another I’d have to say I’m micro bearish until AAPL shows us otherwise.  But since I don’t?  Neutral. 😀

Monthly OpEx promises to be interesting.  In the meantime, enjoy the weekend.

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