AAPLTalk, 08/08/13 Market Close: With or Without You Ex-Div

Pardon the U2 pun.

Three more charts to check up on AAPL from a micro and short-term/intermediate basis.  Depending on how you want to interpret the impact of Apple’s $3.05/share dividend, there may be a another reference trendline worth following within that uptrend price channel, which I’ll explain shortly.

Going to the daily chart first:


This particular charting platform doesn’t account for dividends.  I’m sure many traders and chartists don’t either.  Personally, thinking of it in terms of “not giving AAPL the benefit of the doubt” makes at least some sense (AAPL having had something of a respect problem at least periodically over the years), so why not consider it a “worst-case scenario” of sorts?

Proceeding on that “worst-case scenario” assumption for the moment, AAPL is clearly off the pace of both the accelerated and upper price channel trendline.  But it did rebound from the EMA-8 (which wasn’t div-adjusted in this chart), and AAPL’s intraday low reveals a pretty handy upper-level sorta-trendline (roughly the border of the top third of the channel) that shows up much better in the hourly chart:


AAPL is still holding the upper levels decently well – it held the 38.2% retrace level of the post-earnings move.  Zooming out, there’s a potential descending channel in play for continuation.  Of course, while potential bull flag is one interpretation, another is that of caution due to AAPL being reeled back into the price channel, no longer retesting the top of the daily BB, and the MACD-h drifting lower.  Given volume is still lower than has been typical, I’m focusing on price action for now.

Now onto the div-adjusted scenario – “adding back” the $3.05 in value transferred to shareholders and seeing how AAPL did, which is my preferred perspective for now.  Zooming in on the hourly:


While the price action looks like a micro bear flag triggered, note the light blue line.  That represents AAPL’s closing price adding the $3.05 dividend back in (I was actually off by a nickel with that line, but close enough).  You may see it differently of course, but to me, AAPL just had another sideways day, essentially off by a dollar when considering the repricing effect of the dividend.  It doesn’t change AAPL “falling off the pace” of the upper price channel or accelerated trendlines, but hey, that’s sideways trading for you.

What’s next?  It’s OpEx Friday and apparently the day of an International Trade Commission decision on one of Apple’s patent complaints against Samsung.  AAPL hasn’t really moved all that much the past couple days (intraday selloff on Tuesday notwithstanding), so I’m just looking at the same levels, trying to adjust for the dividend as best I can, trying to determine if WS is adjusting for the dividend, and tracking my new upper-level price channel trendline.  Still feels like AAPL is waiting to make a move, and as of right now I’m in wait-and-see mode myself.  Good luck tomorrow.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s