Maybe this is important, maybe it’s nothing, but since it is blogger’s prerogative we’ll start from the price channel and accelerated trendline I’ve been following.
First, the overview (hourly chart).
It’d be nice if we had three connecting points for the lower trendline, but hey, at least there’s two, and the parallel upper trendline definitely seems to have some validity to it given the number of contacts on the hourly chart alone. In my uneducated opinion, AAPL’s composure remains intact for as long as it remains in this channel. And forgive my presumptuousness, but I’d think the closer AAPL trades to the upper trendline, the better composure is. There’s also that accelerated trendline in lighter, brighter green which I’ve been observing for about a week. AAPL didn’t really follow it for most of July and broke below, but it’s hewing surprisingly closely to it lately. Heck, call it a micro accelerated trendline from near the end of July if you like, that’s fine by me. I happen to think it’s useful to measure AAPL’s current composure on a more micro basis anyway.
Since there’s no need to go over those trendlines again, let’s zoom in to get a better look at the potential inflection point where the accelerated trendline and upper price channel trendline converge:
Almost makes you laugh…or cry…or shake your head in disbelief, doesn’t it? The accelerated trendline and price channel look to converge very close to…that’s right…the ex-div date (August 8). What significance it holds, I don’t know, but it will be interesting to see if AAPL will attempt a breakout from the upper price channel trendline once again (as it is, it’s pretty much right on the border, maybe the slightest bit above it). Or maybe AAPL will break below the accelerated trendline, in which case I go back to watching the price channel, which is roughly 30 points in width with the lower trendline at about 436 or so as of today’s close.
Lots to keep track of as we move closer to the dividend date. Looking at the daily chart, AAPL was stopped about three bucks short of “SMA-200 #2” (non div-adjusted); it more or less bounced off the div-adjusted SMA-200 (currently 470ish). While AAPL threatened to drop below 462 at one point, it still finished the day at 465 and a couple of points above the accelerated trendline, and the daily candle doesn’t look too bad. Really, the only major “problem” with AAPL’s chart is the bull flag not materializing on shorter timeframes; one down day of ~90 basis points does not a multi-week uptrend destroy. One thing we haven’t seen since earnings – two down days in a row, but with dividends looming and the market pricing in $3.05 in transferred value very soon, measuring micro composure seems a lot tougher. In the meantime, I’m keeping it simple and focusing on the trendlines and nearby levels – 470/475 above (which also happen to be about where the “two” SMA-200s are), 465 and the EMA-8 below (EMA-8 being at around 456, which is also micro support from late July/beginning of August).
Mix in the SPX having some trouble with 1700, Big Ben speaking tomorrow and the taper factor, and we have more than enough excitement for Wednesday. Good luck.