AAPLTalk, 7/9/13 (Post-Market Close): Escape Velocity?

aapl-15min-070913close

No, not to the moon, not even close.

But out of a controlling downtrend?  Well, you’ll never get a definitive opinion out of me, but I will say, “maybe, let’s give it a few days“.  (See what I did there?)

Moving to the daily chart:

aapl-daily-070913close

On the plus side:

– AAPL started weak and finished impressively strong, briefly exceeding the prior micro trend high of 423.29 set last Friday.  It even put in one of those “bullish engulfing candles”, which at least looks good.

– The daily MACD-h has given one “this is no fluke” sign on account of having a pretty powerful move after two down days.  There’s an interesting symmetry between today and Thursday, by the way, that may lend a little extra confidence to AAPL bulls (which, as is typical, includes me).

– AAPL appears to have invalidated any head and shoulders formations for now.

– On a tinfoil note, AAPL appears to have just slightly broken out of that controlling downtrend channel (orange line) I’ve been tracking for a while.  It’s not so much the break above, in my opinion, than it is AAPL’s price behavior around that upper bound, which went from fairly tenacious to directly challenging that ineffable barrier of buyer fear, bearish confidence, market disinterest, what have you.

– Add to that AAPL breaking above the SMA-20 (daily) which was at 417-ish and running a safe distance away from it, and it’s tough to call the spade anything other than a spade.

On the minus side, AAPL did fade a bit towards the end, so there is still a question of whether 418-423 will prove to be a tougher resistance zone.

In all honesty, though, just looking at the price action for what it is, there’s a textbook potential bull flag pattern setting up.  You guys know the levels below, AAPL revisited quite a few of them today alone.  I’m looking to see if AAPL can make a run at 430 next.  After that the SMA-50/SMA-100 daily, which are both at 434-ish.

Whether AAPL can build on past constructive price action is the eternal question.  But hey, since technicals as I understand them can only say what’s already happened, the rest (trendlining, projections, price action predictions based on any number of potential triggers) is up to you.  Or me.  Or whoever.  Best of luck.

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