AAPLTalk Weekend, 07/07/13: Play, Pause, Rewind?

aapl-15min-070513close

No Sunday Playbook today. Considering I set a pie-in-the-sky target of 415-420 by Friday…and AAPL actually got there…well, even though I wasn’t all that serious about it, I’m not sure I can follow that one up just yet.

So let’s just go to the charts for now.

As it turned out, that really-quite-ambitious micro trendline from Friday wasn’t sustainable, and AAPL crossed below it shortly after the open as it breached 420 or so.  (I’ve readjusted the trendline to Friday’s low for continued tracking purposes.)  Suffice it to say that potential micro IHS measuring to 425+ didn’t trigger, at least not fully.

On the other hand, despite the thin trading on Friday and max pain threatening to pin AAPL down to 415, AAPL had a mini-rally to finish at 417.42. Still near the bottom of the day’s trading range, but at least AAPL showed a little “fight” in it at the close, establishing 417 as a new micro support level.  Granted, a micro head-and-shoulders-looking pattern is visible on shorter timeframes on Monday through Friday, so I’m trying to keep an eye on that too.

aapl-daily-070513close

Looking at the daily chart, MACD-h is still positive, moving higher actually, but considering the nature of AAPL’s strong move off 388.9, we’ll see if AAPL can make this short-term uptrend stick this time.

Quick notes on levels and trendlines.  Below the closing price of course there’s the 417 micro support.  After that, we now have 415ish as another micro support level to add to 408ish-410ish.

Things are getting pretty congested just a bit overhead. Between 418-420 as light resistance/reference zone, 422-23 as resistance (AAPL having been rejected around that range), and my tinfoil descending channel upper trendline, I’m keeping it simple and just looking to see how AAPL behaves if it reaches the 418ish-423ish band.  If you’re one of those slice-and-dice intraday trader types that wants to focus on the mini-reference levels within the range, well more power to you.  After 418-423, there’s that potential 430 action area I mentioned last technicals post.

Overall, it’s not game over for AAPL’s micro uptrend by any means, but bulls (like me) could be well served by staying watchful and nimble even as a potential bull flag remains in play.  AAPL did get “rejected” by the controlling upper downtrend line (orange line), but it isn’t written anywhere that a stock only gets one chance to break through.  Particularly when you get a weird trading week like last one.

A final observation as the Monday session approaches. Semi-symmetry continues? Starting Apr 15 this year, we had: Down day, up inside day, 3-day cascade down.  Since two Fridays ago: 3 up days, each stronger than the last, kinda doji cross up day, down day.  (By the way, if you’re a believer in dividend-adjusted pricing, then AAPL is currently just a bit higher than the April 15 close.)  Now, I’m not about to make a call that AAPL gaps up Monday and settles down around 425-427 or anything like that.  But I can’t remember the last time I saw a phenomenon quite like this.  Just me, but I’d consider an up day Monday to continue the semi-symmetry – we’ll see what happens.

Good luck with the week ahead!  Time to put away the grilling tools and bring out the keyboards, mice and touchscreen devices!

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s