Sunday Playbook: Trading Week Starting July 1, 2013

thatstheplan?

Needed a concise way to communicate my disclaimer, so with that out of the way –

If I were an AAPL long or trading it to the upside,*** what might I want for next week?

Well, duh.  A take-no-prisoners trade up, maybe reversing early losses for good measure (no gap ups to worry about that way, too), higher volume than we’ve seen recently (15M+ on average, how about a 20M volume day?), a move that builds or holds up all day, maybe even bounces above 400 instead of getting rejected below it, and finishes at the intraday high.  How’s about a 415-420 or better close on Friday.

Sure.  If only.

Being somewhat more realistic: 400 above, 388-ish below.  Those are my tinfoil starting points.  Super-short-term, I’ll be looking to see if that maybe-channel I highlighted in Technicals Corner will “contain” any further selling from the current downtrend. For those who watch for patterns – I kinda do – 400-ish is conveniently the potential trigger level of a 10-ish point measured move off an inverted head and shoulders.  What’ll happen?  Who knows!  Is 400, should AAPL get there, a spot to test a hyper-speculative trade long or short, on any timeframe?  Ask an expert, not me!

(I know those far better versed in technicals than me have systems or rules or whatever.  If for some bizarre reason any of you found your way here, check out the art-museum-grade playbook scribble and disclaimer section before getting too judgmental.)

It’ll be an interesting week.  China PMI appears to have reported a bit better than expected at 50.1 (hardly a great reading, as I understand it), and we’ve got a shortened trading day Tuesday and a trading holiday for the 4th.  Good luck out there, long, short, or neither, and remember – no personal fouls.

Disclosure:  long AAPL common

***AAPL bears are happy campers right now.  They hardly need any “help” from me.

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